South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 6th July)

Best Days: Tues: early morning in Northern NSW whilst winds are offshore. Thurs/Fri: fun but very inconsistent south swell in Northern NSW with mainly light winds. Also a small trade swell in SE Qld.

Recap: Plenty of great waves across Northern NSW all days as a series of south swells provided excellent surf across south facing beaches, and conditions have been generally clean. Unfortunately today’s pulse (what, the fourth or fifth south swell in the last week or so?) came in at the bottom half of the expected size range (4ft sets south facing beaches), which is similar to the observations reported in Southern NSW (a little smaller than expected today). However the Crowdy Head buoy reported a slight uptick in swell period over the last couple of hours - but as the Sydney buoy is offline we’re unable to determine whether this is a delayed increase or a brief anomaly. As for SE Qld, it’s been a very small period of surf away from the exposed south swell magnets.

This week (July 7 - 10)

The southerly swell regime is still motoring along quite nicely.

Today’s swell is expected to ease slightly into Tuesday, however a developing southerly change will ruin the surf at exposed beaches throughout the day.

The timing on this change is hard to pin down. Ahead of it we’ll see freshening W/SW then SW winds, before they go S/SW then S’ly behind the main change. It looks like this southerly flow will extend across the lower Mid North Coast early-mid afternoon, before reaching the Far North Coast mid-late afternoon and SE Qld late afternoon thru’ early evening. 

As such, get in early Tuesday morning for the best waves as it’ll quickly become blown out. Expect very inconsistent 3ft+ sets at exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW early, with much smaller surf at protected locations. Tiny conditions are expected across most Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches once again. 

A small low quality southerly windswell will fill in behind the change on Wednesday, although no great quality is expected as there’ll be a lingering southerly flow across many beaches (early pockets of SW winds are likely in a few locations). These southerlies will however ease throughout the day. Only south facing beaches in Northern NSW will pick up any size, and it’ll remain very small across SE Qld.

Late Wednesday, we’ll see a small new southerly groundswell push through the Lower Mid North Coast. Tuesday’s change will be associated with a broader system that's currently tracking up through from polar latitudes to the southern Tasman Sea, and although it’s not very strong (in core strength) it is a little better aligned than Friday’s model runs depicted.

This should supply a renewal of south swell from late Wednesday (across the Lower Mid North Coast) and into Thursday (all Northern NSW coasts), and even Friday (especially in the Far North). South facing beaches should pick up occasional 3ft+ sets from this source, though it will be rather slow and quite inconsistent. Again, very little size is expected in SE Qld however this swell should produce slightly better results at exposed south swell magnets (maybe some 2ft+ waves). 

It's also worth pointing out that ordinarily, I sometimes forecast slightly above our model's estimates because it often doesn't pick up these kinds of south swells very well (for example, the weekend's 3-4ft+ surf was estimated at just 2ft). But for this coming late Wednesday/Thursday/early Friday period, I'm going to pull back my estimates against the model - it's forecasting 4ft surf at south facing beaches in Northern NSW, but I think it'll be closer to 3ft+. The reason for my decision is that while the wave model's estimates look good on paper (2.0m @ 10.2sec, see Coffs Harbour swell table below), I'm a little worried that the core fetch looks a little weaker than I'd prefer it to be, considering the distance this swell is expected to travel. Therefore, gut feeling tells me this event may slightly underperform as per the model output. 

As for other swell sources, we may also see a small trade swell build across open beaches north of the border from later Wednesday onwards, thanks to a building ridge across the Coral Sea. No major size is expected from this fetch, but we could see set waves in the 2ft+ range at open Sunny Coast beaches through Thursday and Friday, with slightly smaller surf on the Gold Coast.

Of the entire period, Thursday and Friday are currently looking the pick of the forecast period across all coasts as we’ll see the best local winds these days. I’ll reevaluate the specifics on Wednesday. 

This weekend (July 11 - 12)

The weekend looks pretty ordinary at this stage. A vigorous front approaching the eastern states will freshen northerly winds across the region later Friday, ahead of a gusty W’ly tending SW change sometime on Saturday.

With all of our mid-week swell sources likely to be easing by this time, and with no new weather systems on the cards, it looks like Saturday will see tiny clean conditions across most beaches. The models have some trailing south swell in the water early Saturday morning but as per the caveat above I think it’s an overcall at this point in time. 

Once the front clears east of the NSW coast, we’ll see strong S/SW winds generate a sizeable short range swell. This is currently pegged for Monday, but late Sunday afternoon can’t be ruled out at this early stage across the Lower Mid North Coast. 

So, let’s see how Wednesday’s model run updates are tracking. For now though, if you had to bet the house I’d be dusting off the fishing rods. 

Next week (July 13 onwards)

We’ve got a solid south swell due across Northern NSW beaches early next week, thanks to a developing Tasman Low in association with a passing cold front. Quality doesn’t look too special but we could see plenty of size, in the 4-6ft range at south facing beaches around Monday. Again, this swell won’t do much, if anything for SE Qld.

Beyond this, the broader long wave pattern suggests we’ll see similar weather systems pushing through our short range south swell window for much of next week, which suggests regular back-to-back south swells for Northern NSW, but very little for SE Qld. This is fairly typical for winter, so chances are in favour that it’ll eventuate. More on this in Friday’s update.