South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 3rd July)

Best Days: Sat/Sun/Mon: fun but lully S'ly swells in Northern NSW with good winds, Mon seeing the most size (may be arvo in the Far North). Only small in SE Qld. Tues: easing S'ly swell in Northern NSW with offshores. Only small in SE Qld. Thurs: another (smaller) south swell in Northern NSW but winds unsure at this stage. Only small in SE Qld. 

Recap: It’s been a funny couple of days timing wise. Thursday’s expected southerly groundswell arrived much later than forecast (not until after lunchtime in the Far North), but it still produced excellent waves with light winds maintaining clean glassy conditions. Today’s new short range south swell was also delayed in its arrival across the Far North, but the afternoon has produced solid waves right across the region up to 6ft. However the acute southerly direction has resulted in much smaller surf elsewhere, and in SE Qld. 

This weekend (July 4 - 5)

Still no changes to the weekend forecast - great for Northern NSW, but rather ordinary for SE Qld. 

As I’ve detailed all week, the problem north of the border is simply the swell direction - south swells rarely make a noticeable impact in SE Qld.

Today’s south swell will peak overnight and trend downwards from Saturday onwards, and followup southerly groundswells due over the coming days simply won’t be big or strong enough to deliver anything noteworthy. Most beaches will probably holding in the 1ft range, maybe 1-2ft if we’re lucky.

However, winds looks reasonably good both days - Saturday may perhaps see a lingering southerly flow in some regions at times - but in any case south swell magnets (the handful of ‘em) should have the best waves of the region, especially Sunday, when a new long range swell is due and winds are expected to be very light.. very inconsistent 3ft+ sets are possible at the better performing locations. Otherwise you’re better off heading south of the border, preferably south of Byron.

The Northern NSW coast will see several phases of south swell over the weekend. Today’s energy will ease slowly all Saturday (early 3-5ft sets at south facing beaches, smaller elsewhere), ahead of a new pulse of S’ly energy that’s due to nose into the Lower Mid North Coast late afternoon, before reaching the Far North Coast overnight. This should maintain good quality waves between 3ft and occasionally 5ft on Sunday, and winds are due to swing W’ly so the open beaches should maintain clean conditions all day. Again, expect smaller waves at beaches not open to the south.

One point to note on the weekend’s swell trend though - it’ll be quite lully conditions at times, as it’s hard to estimate the precise arrival time, duration and intensity of every pulse (including the overlap of each swell train). So, there could very well be dramatic changes in surf size and consistency from hour to hour no matter where you are located.

Next week (July 6 onwards)

We’ve got more of the same for next week.

A strong front/low combo tracking south of Tasmania on Saturday is expected to generate a new long period south swell for Monday, and conditions are looking excellent with light variable winds.

As per what we’ve seen over the last few days I’m a little concerned on the timing - the swell is due into Southern NSW overnight Sunday so the Mid North Coast should see an upwards trend reasonably early Monday morning (maybe not dawn, but not too far afterwards) however we may not see action in the Far North until after lunch. I’ll update in the comments below (Monday AM) once I’ve got a grip on its movements up the coast.

Either way, we should see solid surf at south facing beaches anywhere between 4ft and possibly 6ft, with smaller waves at remaining beaches. Again, SE Qld won’t pick up much more than a stray 1.5ft wave but the region’s handful of exposed south swell magnets should see very inconsistent sets in the 3ft+ range at times. Expect long breaks between sets. 

This swell will trend down through Tuesday with winds picking up from the west. A further drop in size is expected throughout Wednesday. 

In the latest model runs, we’ve actually had a major swing away from Wednesday’s projections of a low developing in the Southern Tasman Sea and migrating to a position off the West Coast. Instead, another polar low/front contained within the same long wave pattern associated with Monday’s swell is expected to develop overnight Sunday, off the ice shelf, before tracking N/NE through our southern swell window.

This is expected to kick up a fresh S/SE swell for Thursday, probably somewhere in the 3-4ft+ range at south facing beaches (in Northern NSW) but much smaller surf north of the border as per usual. However I feel that this swell will be a little flukier than Monday’s, and a lot less consistent too.  

Beyond this there are no significant swells on the horizon - and nothing special within SE Qld’s eastern swell window - so make the most of the weekend’s fun south swell and also Monday’s strong energy. See you next week!