South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 13th February)

Best Days: Entire period: great waves across the points with a continuation of the existing E'ly swell. Pulsing strongly again around Thursday.

Recap: A continuation of what we saw earlier in the week, with open beaches seeing anywhere between 3ft and 5ft of peaky E’ly swell, and marginally smaller surf across semi-exposed points (smaller again at protected points). Winds ranged anywhere from the S/SE (i.e. Gold Coast) thru’ E (Mid North Coast) however periods of light variable winds were reported early morning.

This weekend (Feb 14 - 15)

Really, the outlook for the next few days is for a repeat of what we’ve seen over the last few days. 

Our primary swell source is a stationary trade below through the Northern Tasman/Southern Coral Sea and its position will once again favour the Sunshine Coast for the biggest waves (4ft+ open beaches on Saturday, smaller points), with wave heights decreasing ever so slightly with increasing southerly latitude. Marginally smaller surf is expected on Sunday thanks to a minor weakening of the trades later today and thru’ Saturday. 

As for local winds, we’re looking at similar conditions as per the last few days, although with a slight anti-clockwise bias: a synoptic SE flow north of the border, tending E’ly in Far Northern NSW and then NE through the Mid North Coast. Winds should however be light and variable for a period each morning, so this will obviously be the best time to surf.

Next week (Feb 16 onwards)

The trades have been very active over the last week or so, and an intensification within the back half of this fetch - just NE of New Zealand - over the last few days is generating a strong new pulse of long range swell that’s due to arrive early in the week. Model data is showing a swell front with peak swell periods in there 10-11 second range arriving overnight Sunday, and peaking through Monday. 

However it’s hard to have confidence on the size because some of the energy was generated just inside the swell shadow of New Zealand as the trough dipped south. The extra travel distance will also ensure very inconsistent set waves, however it’s possible that surf size will punch higher than the current modelled forecast (2-3ft), to 3-4ft - maybe even a few slightly bigger waves in the far north (ie Sunshine Coast).

Either way, with early light winds tending onshore throughout the day it’ll be well worth an early session at your favourite beach break or semi-exposed point.

Otherwise, we’re looking at a residual trade swell filling out Tuesday and Wednesday in the 2-3ft range at most beaches. Winds should be similar as per Monday (early light, tending moderate onshore during the days). 

An intensification of the trades are expected S/SE of new Caledonia early next week, and this should be an excellent source of stronger swell through the second half of the week. This should generate a good pulse of E’ly groundswell arriving early Thursday, building to an afternoon peak in the 3-5ft range through across most exposed beaches, with smaller waves across protected locations. This swell should hold through Friday morning before easing into the afternoon. So, it’s looking very promising surf-wise for much of the week across both regions.

Have a great weekend! See you Monday.