South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 29th October)

Best Days: Early Thursday: peak in south swell at exposed swell magnets in Northern NSW, and a temporary period of light winds. Saturday morning: small long period S'ly swell at exposed swell magnets in Northern NSW, with freshening NE winds. Sunday morning: peaky but easing NE swell in Northern NSW with S'ly winds. 

Recap: Tuesday didn’t quite come through as expected in SE Qld - the local NE windowsill (which was pushing a good 2-3ft Monday evening) tailed off overnight once the northerly airstream stopped, shortly after midnight. As such Tuesday morning was left with small but reasonably clean waves with moderate southerly winds. Elsewhere, the southerly airstream created problems through the morning across Northern NSW with southern locales seeing a lighter E’ly then NE flow through the afternoon. Today has seen a decent south swell across exposed beaches in Northern NSW, but very little of this swell has made it into SE Qld. Winds were moderate W/SW early but are now fresh southerly in most regions.

This week (Oct 30-31)

A strong, long period southerly groundswell is moving across the southern NSW coast at the moment, of which the leading edge should be pushing into the lower Mid North Coast at the moment. It’ll be a short lived affair, probably peaking in the early hours of Thursday morning before trending downwards throughout the day - but we should see some solid sets at Northern NSW’s exposed south swell magnets around dawn (3-5ft). 

Much smaller surf is expected at beaches not open to the south, and unfortunately very little swell will make its way north of Byron (so don't expect much surf in SE Qld). Wave heights will ease steadily throughout the afternoon at all locations.

Wind wise, we’re looking at early light and variable winds ahead of freshening N’ly tending NE winds throughout the day. So you will absolutely need to capitalise on the dawn patrol in order to score the best waves. Just be mindful that winds are likely to be moderate to fresh onshore (SE) overnight tonight, so there’ll probably be some surface lumpiness on top at dawn - the best time for waves will probably be a few hours after sunrise, which will hopefully have allowed things to settle down and organise themselves a little better.

As for Friday, we’re looking at small residual swells and a mainly fresh northerly airstream that’ll wipe out conditions at all but the most protected northern corner. A small long period south swell is expected to arrive very late in the day across the Mid North Coast - exclusive to south swell magnets - but confidence is not high that we’ll see a favourable period of winds at all (away from super protected beaches).

That being said, if you do have such a location up your sleeve there’ll be some solid, if somewhat inconsistent waves up around 3-4ft at times for the late session (I don't think this swell will reach much further than about Coffs by dark).

Otherwise, expect peaky low quality NE windswell building to 2-3ft at exposed NE facing beaches.

This weekend (Nov 1-2)

A broad strengthening northerly flow off the coast Friday night will persist through Saturday and this is expected to generate a solid short range swell for the first half of the weekend. In fact NE facing beaches across the Mid North Coast should reach 3-5ft by Saturday afternoon, although they will be heavily wind affected with gusty N/NE winds persisting through until the late afternoon. Smaller surf is expected in the Far North due to the shorter fetch length.

We’ll also see some leftover S’ly groundswell in the water at Northern NSW's exposed south swell magnets first thing Saturday (maybe 2-3ft, and inconsistent), but this will ease steadily during the day.

A gusty southerly change is due to reach the Mid North Coast in the early/late evening, before tracking northwards (probably reaching the border a few hours after dawn) and this will rapidly improve conditions inside southern corners. Unfortunately Saturday’s NE swell will be rapidly on the way down during this time and the south swell will be all but gone - so you’ll have to make the most of the early session on Sunday. Expect 3ft sets at dawn fading to 1-2ft by mid-late afternoon, and winds should be moderate S/SW tending SE and freshening. We’ll also see a small local SE swell build throughout Sunday but it won’t have much size or strength.

Across SE Qld, the weekend’s not looking too flash for surfers. Saturday will be blown out with northerly winds and a small local NE windswell, and Sunday looks dicey with the southerly change expected to only just reach the Gold Coast early morning before petering out near North Stradbroke Island (which may keep the Sunny Coast under a N’ly airstream all day). 

Saturday’s northerly winds should whip up some peaky 2ft+ waves for Gold Coast swell magnets on Sunday (smaller on the Sunny Coast) but I wouldn’t hold your breath for anything worthwhile. 

Long term (Nov 1 onwards)

A building ridge across the northern Tasman Sea later Sunday looks set to provide plenty of small trade swell for SE Qld and Northern NSW through the first half of next week. Otherwise, there are no major sources of swell lining up for the long term period - we’ll see some southerly groundswell across exposed beaches in Northern NSW later Monday and Tuesday (generated from another strong front pushing through the lower Tasman Sea on Sunday), but there’s nothing else of interest on the long term radar.