South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 27th October)

Best Days: Tuesday: should be fun waves (peaky NE swell) in the wake of the S'ly change across SE Qld and Northern NSW. Winds may not be favourable on the Sunny Coast though. Wednesday: small south swell at swell magnets in Northern NSW with early light winds. Thursday: strong south swell at south swell magnets in Northern NSW, but winds likely to ruin it.

Recap: The ‘Festival of the Northerly Breeze’ has caused nothing but grief in SE Qld and Northern NSW for the last few days, however locations south of Coffs Harbour enjoyed a brief window of light winds late Saturday and early Sunday, and much of today as well. Surf has been mainly locally sourced with the biggest waves being found in the south, owing to its position further downstream. 

Next week (Oct 28-31)

A shallow southerly change is making its way along the NSW coast right now, and will arrive overnight across Northern NSW, probably reaching the border around dawn.

However, current mode guidance has it stalling over Moreton Island and it may very well not reach the Sunshine Coast until dinnertime, if it arrives at all (probably only the southern Sunshine Coast at best). So, more northerlies are likely for you guys (maybe occasional periods of variable winds through lunchtime and the afternoon if we're lucky).

But south from here, the Gold Coast and Far Northern NSW should actually be fun on Tuesday as conditions should rapidly improve behind the change, and with winds moderate out of the south there should be some decent peaky waves across NE facing beaches in the 2-3ft+ range.  Size will taper off into the afternoon so aim for an early session. 

From about Byron Bay south to Coffs Harbour, southerly winds are expected to be moderate to fresh at times so you’ll need to tuck into a sheltered southern corner for the best conditions. However winds should be light and variable from Coffs Harbour to Seal Rocks so there should be good beachies in most regions here. The NE windswell will be a little smaller across Northern NSW, but there’ll also be a small mix of S’ly swells in the water too, including some long range energy in the afternoon (mainly in the south) from a W/SW fetch exiting eastern Bass Strait this evening.

On Wednesday, we’ll see a new pulse of small southerly groundswell generated by the leading edge of a vigorous series of fronts through the lower Tasman Sea. In fact, a very solid south swell is due in on Thursday but prior to this we should see light variable winds and afternoon sea breezes, and some inconsistent sets to 2-3ft at south facing beaches in Northern NSW. 

In SE Qld, very little of this south swell will make its way north of Byron so Wednesday will be relying on tiny leftover NE swell from Tuesday (i.e. not much). 

Thursday’s solid south swell will, as per usual, only favour exposed south facing beaches across Northern NSW. That being said, south swell magnets will certainly have the potential to pull in strong 4-5ft+ sets - but the main concern for Thursday is a redeveloping NE airstream across the coast. With an early peak in size, conditions will be best in the morning with light winds so aim for the dawn patrol if you can. 

Rapidly easing south swell is expected on Friday with persistent NE winds. They should be strong enough to (again) whip up some local short range energy but ideally we’ll be looking for a window of favourable winds somewhere and right now nothing is showing up on the radar. So don’t bother getting too excited about Friday right now. However there wil certainly be waves around if you don't mind lowering your standards a few notches.

This weekend (Nov 1-2)

Bit of a mixed bag for the weekend but there’ll be a few small periods of OK surf.

On Friday, a very long period south swell - generated by an intense polar low travelling south of the continent mid-week - is expected to track along the southern NSW coast, displaying swell periods in the 19-20 second range. It’s then due to reach the Northern NSW coast overnight before easing on Saturday, so the early session will display the most size (nothing is expected to make it to SE Qld from this source).

Exposed south facing beaches may see a couple of very inconsistent 3ft+ sets but there’s likely to be twenty minute breaks between ‘em.

Probably more useful on Saturday will be a similarly sized but far more consistent NE windswell, generated by Friday’s strengthening near-shore fetch. We should see 3-4ft sets in the southern regions, but smaller surf in the north (2-3ft) and in SE Qld (1-2ft)

Conditions look pretty woeful for Saturday morning but a S’ly change is expected throughout Sunday so there is hope that we will see a shift in the wind regime at some point Saturday afternoon, by way of some influence from a preceding trough. I’ll have a better idea on this on Wednesday.

As for Sunday, the most likely outcome is a diminishing NE windswell and a possibly small building S’ly windswell in the wake of Saturday’s change (probably no great size). At this stage the change may not reach the NSW/Qld border until mid-afternoon so we’ll really need a few days to develop any confidence for SE Qld's surf prospects.

Long term (Nov 1 onwards)

More southerly swell due for next week as the storm track remains active in the lower Tasman Sea. It’s too far out to pin down specifics but for now all signs are positive for plenty of Tasman swell for the foreseeable future.