Southeast Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 14th May)

Best Days: Fri/Sat/Sun/Mon/Tues: building trade swell for SE Qld that'll deliver fun waves across the points.

Recap: Small average conditions in most regions on Tuesday. The much discussed SE swell ended up reaching the southern NSW coast yesterday (holding through today) and has pushed across the Northern NSW coast this morning (no sign of it on the Byron or SE Qld buoys yet though). In southern NSW, the swell delivered slightly bigger waves than expected - which is very impressive given its remote, unusual source and the large travel distance. 

This week (May 13-16 onwards)

The SE groundswell currently advancing along the Northern NSW coast should fill into SE Qld this afternoon and through Thursday, with the swell likely to persist across Northern NSW into Thursday morning. 

Unfortunately, it probably won’t be distinguishable from the pre-existing low period noise generated by the local SE airstream. So we’re looking at small average exposed points in SE Qld and the Far North Coast. Exposed beaches should pull in very inconsistent sets of about 3ft.

Winds will be lighter south of about Ballina but it’ll still be mainly onshore; the only area likely to see OK conditions on Thursday is the lower Mid North Coast which should have a variable pattern thanks to a broad ridge of high pressure. The downside is that the SE swell will quickly dry up across this region during the day so you’ll have to surf early for the best waves.

Over the next 48 hours, the trades through the lower Coral Sea are expected to muscle up and this will result in a building trade swell across the region from Friday onwards. Being closest to the swell source, the Sunshine Coast will pick up the most size, with slightly smaller waves on the Gold Coast and onwards as you track south along the Northern NSW coast (not much size is expected from this source south of about Yamba or perhaps Coffs). 

Wave heights will peak over the weekend but Friday should reach the 3ft range across the Gold Coast by the afternoon, with 4ft waves on the Sunny Coast, and moderate to fresh SE winds (maybe lighter S’ly for a brief period early) will confine the best surf to the points. Expect small residual swells south of Yamba on Friday with mainly light variable winds. 

This weekend (May 17-18)

Tradeswell is the main focus of the weekend, which is good because it’ll offer a wide range of surf possibilities across SE Qld. And, the good news is that the models have slightly ramped up the strength of the trade flow since Monday, which means we’re looking at a bigger peak in surf size. 

As per Friday, we’re looking at the biggest waves on the Sunshine Coast (4-5ft+ waves open beaches, smaller on the points) with 4ft surf on the Gold Coast, grading to 3ft somewhere in the Ballina region, with surf size becoming consecutively smaller south of about there.

In general, moderate to fresh SE winds will dominate the region but there’s a small chance for early S’ly winds which will create the best waves of the weekend. Late Saturday and early Sunday will probably see the peak of the swell, but in general it’ll be a slow, steady trend so there’s no rush to work around any specific time frame.

Long term (May 19 onwards)

The strengthening trades responsible for our weekend swell are expected to throttle back only slowly next week, which means the corresponding downwards trend in swell will also happen at a slow pace. At this stage we’re likely to see the bottom of the cycle around the end of next week (Thurs/Fri), which means a very gradual easing trend from Sunday - as a rough guess just less than half a foot a day, so barely noticeable for most punters.

Also aiding next week's surf potential will be the relaxing pressure gradient, which will result in weaker winds locally. They’re still likely to be onshore throughout the days, but we should see a longer period of morning offshores than what we may possibly luck into this weekend. 

Elsewhere, a stubborn ridge of high pressure across the Tasman Sea will probably restrict anything noteworthy forming in the central/southern Tasman Sea for quite some time. One of the main contributors to this situation is the long wave trough, which is currently amplifying SW of Western Australia.

Fortunately, it looks like the LWT may slowly shift further east during the weekend and into next week, which should allow for the North Coast’s far southern swell window to become active. 

Straight off the bat, a broad, intense low is modelled to pass well to the south of SA/Vic/Tas on Saturday and Sunday (at around 50S) that’s expected to deliver some small long period southerly swell later Tuesday and into Wednesday of next week. With likely favourable conditions on hand, exposed south swell magnets across the North Coast should benefit quite well from this source (early estimates are very inconsistent 2-3ft sets). 

Beyond that, the middle to latter part of next week - and the following weekend - are also on track for some additional long range southerly groundswell as our far southern swell window becomes active. More on this in Friday’s update.