South Australian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 21st February)

Best Days: Thurs: small clean waves at Victor. Sun: possible small swell on the Mid, likely lumpy with easing onshores. Mon/Tues: small and clean at Victor. Wed: possible swell on the Mid. 

Recap: Average onshore windswells at Victor, and flat on the Mid. Summer in full flight! A new groundswell appeared across the coast around lunchtime today, around 6-10 hours ahead of schedule (with peak swell periods around 16 seconds). However there’s no sign of any increase at the coast yet. 

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This week (Feb 20 - 23)

Today’s notes will be brief as Craig’s on leave.

Our small new groundswell should provide fun waves at Victor on Thursday morning under an early NE breeze. We’re only looking at a couple of inconsistent feet at Middleton but it’ll be an ideal size range for Goolwa and Waits with occasional 2-3ft sets. Get in early before the SE sea breeze kicks in.

This swell may show across the Mid Coast but there won’t be much than a very small, inconsistent 0.5-1ft tops. Conditions will however be clean with light offshore winds. 

Winds will freshen from the NE on Friday morning as this swell eases, so your best options will again be at the exposed swell magnets down south. Strengthening NW winds are expected into the afternoon as a cut-off low approaches through the Bight.

Don’t expect anything of value on the Mid on Friday. 

This weekend (Feb 24 - 25)

A small long period groundswell will arrive across the coast on Friday afternoon, ahead of a peak through Saturday, but the large travel distance will result in only a small swell size at most coasts. No great size is expected though and low conditions are looking pretty ratty.

Unfortunately, the remnants of TC Kelvin - developing in the Bight as a cut-off low on Thursday and Friday - won’t display any favourable swell generating characteristics, due to it riding too high in the Bight (and lacking a useful ridge to the north). So, we’ll see an onshore wind change into Saturday but without any notable swell from this system.

However! There is some potential for decent surf along the Mid Coast on Sunday, though the various computer models are not resolving this very well, so we’ll need to check back on Friday.

In short, a strong secondary front much further west - below WA on Friday, well west of the cut-off low - is expected to move through the Mid Coast’s swell window. It’s as yet unclear how strong the front will be as it moved through the Bight, and this is crucial for swell prospects, but there’s a chance that it (and not the cut-off low) could generate a useful swell for the Mid Coast, arriving later Saturday (more likely overnight) and providing fun though lumpy 2ft+ surf into Sunday as the onshores abate quickly. 

That’s certainly at the more optimistic end of the forecast spectrum though, so let’s see how things are panning out on Friday. 

Next week (Feb 26 onwards)

Sunday’s swell will ease through Monday with light winds. There'll be small OK waves at Victor if you're keen, and if we see any swell on the Mid on Sunday, it'll probably be half the size by Monday.

A blocking pattern will have developed upstream within our swell window, leading to another period of small surf and tricky winds for the Victor coast.

A series of fronts wrapping a cut off low in the Bight may deliver some short range W’ly energy for the Mid Coast mid-week though it’s hard to have confidence on its swell potential as once again, the models are in disagreement as to the size and strength of this system. It’s certainly worth keeping a close eye on though.

Otherwise, the broader blocking pattern should break down around this time, leading to an increase in solid SW groundswell later next week and into the following weekend. More on this in Friday’s update.