South Australian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 26th December)

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Best Days: Mid Coast tomorrow afternoon keen surfers, Friday, Saturday

Recap

Much smaller 1-1.5ft waves yesterday across the Mid Coast after Monday's strong swell, with 2ft'ers across magnets on the incoming tide. The South Coast was fun with a good 3ft of swell off Middleton and good conditions most of the day.

A strong tropical low moved across us overnight bringing large rainfall totals, strong winds and a NW windswell on the Mid Coast to 2ft or so.

The South Coast was clean but near flat.

This week and weekend (Dec 29 – Dec 1)

All eyes are on a secondary intense mid-latitude currently in the Bight, with a fetch of W'ly gales being produced under the WA coast.

This morning winds were too far north even for the Mid Coast on the top of the low, but this afternoon we should see the low drift slowly south-east while weakening. This will see a weakening fetch of W'ly winds aimed in the Mid Coast's swell window.

With the initial stages of the low being out of the Mid Coast's swell window, a slight downgrade in size and timing of the swell is expected.

No major size is expected early tomorrow morning when conditions are due to be clean and winds light, but into the afternoon 2ft sets should develop on the Mid along with a moderate to fresh NW'ly.

A peak is expected through Friday to a consistent 2ft+ with a moderate W/NW wind, easing into the afternoon. Therefore keep an eye on the cams and obs for fun window of waves.

With the low staying so far north, the South Coast isn't due to see any size at all with an inconsistent W/SW groundswell only coming in at 1-1.5ft across Middleton Friday, not much bigger at Waits and Parsons.

Into the weekend the W/SW swell should ease back from 1-2ft on the Mid Coast, with small waves continuing down South. An early W/NW breeze should create clean conditions down South with a more variable breeze across the Mid Coast.

A weak front moving through Sunday will create average conditions with SW winds, and this will be as a new inconsistent W/SW groundswell peaks.

The source of this swell is a strong but very distant polar low south-east of Madagascar and between Heard Island.

The low has since weakened leaving a very inconsistent W/SW groundswell to travel towards us.

Middleton is expected to offer 2ft waves, with sets possibly near 3ft, while the Mid should hang around 1ft. As touched on, conditions will be poor with an onshore wind.

Longer term there's nothing significant on the cards, so try and Surf Friday and Saturday on the Mid.