South Australian Forecast (issued Wednesday 30th April)

Best Days: Thursday, Friday for semi-stormy waves on the Mid, Saturday and Sunday mornings

Recap

Yesterday was average across the Mid Coast with a stormy increase in windswell and underlying long-range W/SW groundswell with strengthening W'ly winds.

The South Coast started off tiny and clean, but the new groundswell built strongly into the afternoon, reaching 3ft at Middleton but this was the only option with the strong W'ly wind.

A change moved through this morning and with it a stronger groundswell has peaked with the Mid Coast performing the best under light E'ly winds and an easing swell from 2ft to occasionally 3ft.

This week and Sunday (Apr 30 – May 4)

Today's swell will ease through tomorrow and conditions are looking great for the South Coast with light morning offshores from the N/NW that will strengthen during the day. The Mid Coast will have waves early but conditions will deteriorate rapidly during the day.

Friday will be poor across both coasts as a vigorous frontal system moves in just before dawn bringing strong SW winds and a stormy 2-3ft of swell on the Mid Coast. The South Coast will see a mix of long-range and medium-range SW groundswell filling in but there'll be no options for a decent wave.

Saturday on the other hand should see a peak in medium-large sized SW groundswell, generated by the initial stages of the front pushing into us on Friday. This front is currently south of WA and will push up through the Bight during tomorrow while weakening. A secondary weaker system should then push through into Friday helping to generate a reinforcing W/SW swell for Sunday.

Size wise the South Coast should peak Saturday with 3-5ft sets at Middleton and 4-6ft waves at Waits, while the Mid should continue in the 2ft range. The reinforcing swell should then keep 2ft waves hitting the Mid Sunday morning ahead of an easing trend through the afternoon, while the South Coast should ease slowly all Sunday.

Winds are real tricky to forecast at the moment as the models diverge on the track of the reinforcing front moving in from the Bight Friday and where it will head. Most guidance has it pushing north across the state and this could result in variable winds Saturday and Sunday, while other solutions have strong onshores Saturday and lighter winds Sunday.

With this in mind you'll have to check back here on Friday for an update on the local winds, but also keep an eye on the model forecasts in the meantime as they'll start to become solid on their predictions tomorrow.

Monday onwards (May 5 onwards)

The weekend's swell is due to ease into Monday, and with the tricky weekend wind forecast, it's too hard to slate down whether its worth a drive down South.

What is almost certain is that we'll see a deepening cold front intensifying under us into Tuesday next week, bringing with it a solid increase in S/SW swell but likely with poor winds. We'll confirm this all again on Friday though, so check back then for an update.