Nias, Mentawai, South Sumatra forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Thu 23rd Oct)

Best Days: Friday, Saturday, Monday, Tuesday onwards out of the NW winds

This week and weekend (Oct 21 - 26)

After some fun waves the last few days, the swell has really bottomed out into this morning with exposed breaks the only real option for a surfable but inconsistent wave.

Luckily a new acute S/SW groundswell is due tomorrow, but this may be 6 or so hours behind forecast, with the swell arriving in WA a similar time behind schedule. So if there's not much size on offer at dawn, don't panic, a good pulse should occur through the late morning ahead of a peak into the afternoon.

Exposed spots in the Ments should see inconsistent 4-5ft+ waves with 6ft bombs around South Sumatra. A drop in size is due into Saturday with the swell again bottoming out Sunday but still coming in at 3ft to occasionally 4ft across exposed breaks around the Mentawais.

Winds should be light and variable for the most part, lingering from the southern quadrant if anything and this will open up those exposed south facing breaks for business.

Next week onwards (Oct 27 onwards)

Next week will see similar pulses of moderate sized S/SW groundswell across the region as a series relatively weak polar fronts continue to push through our southern swell window between Heard Island and Western Australia.

The best pulse is due Monday, peaking during the morning to 4-5ft+ in the Ments with 6ft bombs around South Sumatra before easing back through Tuesday. A slightly smaller pulse is due on Wednesday afternoon, peaking Thursday just under what's expected on Monday.

After this one final S/SW swell is due on Saturday with nothing major at all into the start of November resulting in wave heights becoming small to tiny across the region.

Winds will go funky and unfavourable from Tuesday afternoon onwards as a weak surface low develops to our west, directing moderate to possibly fresh NW winds across the Ments. We'll have another look at this on Tuesday though. 

16 day Mentawai forecast graph
16 day Nias forecast graph
16 day South Sumatra forecast graph