Nias, Mentawai, South Sumatra forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Thu 16th Oct)

Best Days: Every day over the coming period until Thursday next week

Attached photos are from Kandui Villas’ continued run of swell through September. Click through for a more detailed report of the month and some great images.

This week and weekend (Oct 17 - 19)

Wave heights have tailed away since yesterday, becoming small into this afternoon with winds from the south-eastern quadrant.

We've got some fun pulses of S/SW groundswell on the cards for the coming period, the first arriving overnight and peaking tomorrow morning ahead of a better pulse Saturday.

Saturday's pulse should offer the most size, peaking through the middle of the day to 5-6ft+ across exposed spots in the Ments while South Sumatra should see bigger bombs towards 8ft.

A drop in size is then due Sunday and further into Monday, bottoming out around midday.

Winds are expected to be moderate from the SE tomorrow around the Ments tomorrow (fresher around South Sumatra) before easing into Saturday and becoming more variable Sunday and then lingering from the southern quadrant into early next week.

Next week onwards (Oct 20 onwards)

Our tertiary pulse of S/SW groundswell due later Monday and Tuesday morning is still on track with the polar frontal progression firing up in the Heard Island region and pushing north-east towards WA playing out nicely.

This swell will be really inconsistent but should pulse to the 6ft range later in the day Monday across exposed breaks and then ease Tuesday from a similar 6ft across exposed breaks in the Ments. A further drop in size should be seen through Wednesday, bottoming out Thursday 2ft to occasionally 3ft at exposed breaks.

Longer term, a small-moderate sized S/SW swell is due Friday with a couple more pulses into the following week, but none of them will offer any major size. This will be related to a series of blocking highs setting up across our prime swell window south-east of South Africa and Madagascar. Therefore make the most of the current surf on offer!

16 day Mentawai forecast graph
16 day Nias forecast graph
16 day South Sumatra forecast graph