Ments: Slow going ahead of a large swell next Thursday
Nias, Mentawai, South Sumatra forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Thu 12th Jun)
Best Days: Coming days at exposed south facing breaks, Tuesday onwards
Tomorrow and this weekend (Jun 10 - 15)
As mentioned in last update, we're headed for a few days of slower waves across the region due to a strong high putting a block across our prime swell window over the last 4-5 days.
In saying this background levels of SW groundswell shouldn't see exposed spots dip below 3ft over the weekend in the Ments (slightly bigger in Southern Sumatra). Some funky S/SE swell is also due across Southern Sumatra and exposed spots in the Mentawais over the weekend and Monday from a strong south-easterly ridge currently sitting to our south-southeast.
Winds are expected to be light and mainly variable from the NW, favouring exposed spots across the islands.
Next Monday onwards (Jun 16 onwards)
Some better SW groundswell is due to fill in Tuesday and Wednesday across the region ahead of a much larger and more powerful S/SW groundswell Thursday.
The first pulse of medium sized SW groundswell is being generated by a tight but intense polar low that's currently south-east of Madagascar, generating a fetch of severe-gale SW winds towards us.
This should generate a good pulse of inconsistent SW groundswell for Tuesday to 4-5ft across exposed breaks in the Ments, bigger in South Sumatra, but it will also set in motion an active sea state for a secondary much larger and broader polar front to push up and over. A pro-longed fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds will be generated through our south-west swell window before the progression finally starts to break down while approaching WA on Monday.
What will result is a large S/SW groundswell for us, arriving later Wednesday and peaking Thursday to 8-10ft+ in the Ments, 8-10ft up at Nias and a larger 10ft to occasionally 12ft at exposed spots in Southern Sumatra.
Winds look great for this swell and should be light and variable between passing thunder squalls and storms, opening up plenty of options.
After this swell there's a chance for a medium-large SW groundswell 3-4 days later, but we'll review this on Tuesday.
16 day Mentawai forecast graph
16 day Nias forecast graph
16 day South Sumatra forecast graph
Comments
10 foot next week and north east winds. Yikes
Yeah looks terrible! I assume there's a work-related conference or trade show in the near vicinity next week? Ha!
haha no tradeshow Ben, the only tax deductible trip I can think of is finding new premises for Swellnet. I am happy to intensively research the area next week for a decent location. I can send you an invoice for services rendered.
Also its going to be bigger in Java models saying 12-15 feet
Sancho and friends are Nias bound right now. true.
Can't believe I have no FOMO at all, it's a sweet feeling to tell you the truth.
http://www.swellnet.com/reports/australia/western-australia/margaret-riv...
Margaret River WAMS indicate another massive bombing low Monday 23rd June too.
Another D grade pro en route to make a cunt of themselves in the name of a promo video that will net them a few hundred dollars. Get a job fuckwit.*
* Denotes an opinion that may not apply to "Sancho" . He may be a great bloke, but he's still basically selling locations and not his surfing skills , making non resourceful clowns sit up mid clip and say " That spot is amazing , I've never considered going there before but that's it , I'm going next week. And I'm taking several of my bad mannered mates and were going to blog about it as well as though the idea of restraint and not revealing the location of a semi low key spot is nothing but a historic concept adhered to by those born before the surf industry convinced every one that we are one large friendly , tribe that can't wait to all surf together at the same break at the same exact instant. "
Hey Blowin I hear what you say. What I find hilarious at some of these "semi low key spots" is the unheard of chargers who frequent these spots showing up those D grade pros. Most of those chargers you couldn't sell them a shot of themselves getting pitted let alone bringing "their" photographer with them.
Heard a funny story two days ago at ulus. Some wealthy American took "his" photographer on the weekend to Deserts for a one day surf trip via a helicopter. Finished up his surf and a young Aussie guy heading back to Bali asked for a ride with his tongue in cheek. The seppo obliged and the young Aussie guy is still laughing.