Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 2nd July)

This week through next (Jul 3 - 12)

Our mid-period S/SW swell came in nicely on the weekend, with it fading slowly yesterday and today as some background SW groundswell filled in.

Into the end of the week we’ve got our stronger, large SW groundswells on the way, with some new, moderate-large sized but inconsistent energy due tomorrow ahead of the larger stuff Thursday afternoon and Friday.

The source, as pointed out last week was a strong but slightly disorganised frontal progression up and north of the Heard Island region late last week and through the weekend.

The progression is now moving across Western Australia in a weakened form, with one final frontal system generating gale to severe-gale W/NW winds at a poor angle for our swell window. This should generate a smaller, reinforcing S/SW groundswell for Sunday afternoon.

Following these swells, we’ve got some moderate to large, consistent SW-S/SW swell due into next week thanks to a northward protruding frontal progression up towards us over the weekend.

It’ll be mid-period energy, building later Tuesday but coming in from Wednesday through Friday. 

Further moderate to large sized mid-period S/SW swell is likely next weekend but we’ll look into this in more detail Thursday. 

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The region is awash with SE trade-swell and some new S’ly groundswell with further pulses of S’ly groundswell (from the Southern Ocean frontal activity) due over the coming days, easing into the end of the week.

A healthy fetch of more distant SE trades look to maintain moderate + sized levels of SE trade-swell for the coming days, while a new developing fetch of SE trades south of us later week should produce a renewal of S/SE energy into the weekend and early next week, reaching the moderate to large size range.

The activity projecting towards Western Australia should also generate some good S’ly swell pulses for the southern atolls with moderate + levels due through next week.

Eastern Indonesia:

Moderate to large SW groundswell building tomorrow to 6ft, with a larger S/SW groundswell for later Thursday/Friday to 8ft on the sets across the magnets.

Inconsistent, reinforcing S/SW groundswell Sunday afternoon to 4-6ft.

Moderate + sized mid-period S/SW swell building later Tue, peaking Wed to 5-6ft, with a little more energy Thursday afternoon/Friday.

Moderate to fresh E/SE-SE trades, stronger later this week, easing slowly through the weekend. Variable winds each morning.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Moderate to large SW groundswell building tomorrow to 6ft+, with a larger S/SW groundswell for Thursday/early Friday morning to 8ft on the sets.

Smaller, reinforcing S/SW groundsell Sunday to 3-5ft.

Moderate sized mid-period S/SW swell for Wednesday to 4-6ft, with some slightly larger energy due later week. 

Variable winds, freshening from the E/SE-SE across southern locations Thursday.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Moderate + sized S’ly groundswell for this afternoon and tomorrow to 4-5ft+ across the southern atolls.

New SE trade-swell today/tomorrow to 4-5ft+, easing slowly into the end of the week and Saturday.

Moderate to large S’ly groundswell for tomorrow afternoon and Thursday morning to 4-6ft across the southern atolls.

Moderate to large sized S/SE-SE trade-swell building Sunday, peaking early next week to 5-6ft.

Smaller levels of mid-period S’ly swell across the southern atolls.

Variable winds today, light W/SW-SW tomorrow, shifting S’ly through Thursday and Friday, tending W/SW into the afternoons across northern and central locations.

S’ly winds persisting across southern locations on the weekend, SW to the north. W/SW-SW winds next week across northern locations.