Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 29th February)

This week through next (Mar 1 - 8)

We’ve got an active period of surf ahead with an initial pulse of mid-period S/SW swell tomorrow afternoon and Saturday morning due to be followed up by some better S/SW groundswell Sunday.

The source of Saturday’s swell was discussed in Tuesday’s notes, that being a healthy polar low to the south-west of Western Australia, while a strong, trailing system is currently generating a good reinforcing S/SW groundswell for Tuesday, peaking through the afternoon. This swell won’t be as large but still sizey before easing into Wednesday and Thursday, slowed by some smaller, background SW energy.

The next pulse of size is due later Friday but more so Saturday next weekend, with the source being back to back relatively weak but healthy polar fronts firing up around the Heard Island region this weekend, into Monday.

Size wise, a mix of swells should peak Saturday (the 9th) to 5-6ft on the sets across exposed breaks. After this things go a little quiet so make the most of the coming swells.

Across to the Maldives, and a mix of mid-period S’ly swell and background S/SE energy should be replaced with stronger levels of groundswell Sunday afternoon from the polar low discussed above.

This will ease Monday, but a slow moving low that’s formed south-east of Madagascar should generate a good pulse of reinforcing, mid-period S’ly swell early-mid next week.

The size should ease into the end of the week, with the next pulse of S’ly swell arriving from the activity around Heard Island next Friday. This looks smaller than the swell earlier in the week.

Other than that, a small SE trade-swell signal is likely to start showing through next week, but more on this next update.

Eastern Indonesia:

Inconsistent, mid-period S/SW swell filling in tomorrow, reaching 4-5ft across exposed breaks into the afternoon, easing from a similar size Saturday.

Larger, S/SW groundswell for Sunday to 6-8ft across exposed breaks, easing Monday.

Reinforcing, moderate-large sized S/SW swell Tuesday to 4-6ft across exposed breaks through the afternoon (possibly undersized early).

Moderate + sized mid-period S/SW swell building Friday (8th), peaking Saturday (9th) to 5-6ft across exposed breaks.

Variable winds tomorrow, tending weak W/NW-W/SW on the weekend and Monday, variable Tuesday before freshening from the W/NW-W/SW mid-late next week and weekend.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Moderate-large sized S’ly groundswell for Sunday to 6ft, easing Monday and slowed a little into Tuesday.

Fun sized, mid-period SW swell for Wednesday/Thursday. Weak W’ly swell also in the mix later week.

Moderate sized, mid-period S/SW swell for Friday afternoon and next Saturday to 4-5ft across exposed breaks.

Variable winds tomorrow, freshening slowly from the N/NW-NW Saturday, further Sunday, persisting most of next week but weakening.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Small S-S/SE swells this week to 2-3ft or so across the southern atolls.

Small NE windswell also in the mix.

Moderate sized, inconsistent S’ly groundswell building Sunday afternoon, reaching 4ft across the southern atolls.

Reinforcing mid-period S’ly swells to 4ft+ across the southern atolls Monday through next Wednesday.

New mid-period S’ly swell for Friday, building to 3-4ft across the southern atolls.

Mod-fresh E/NE winds tomorrow, easing and tending E Saturday, light to moderate E/NE Sunday. Light to moderate N/NE winds for most of next week.