Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 15th February)

This week through next (Feb 16 - 23)

A small pulse of average S’ly swell is due this afternoon and tomorrow morning across the region, generated by a burst of S/SE winds off the Western Australian coast.

This will be replaced by a slightly better but inconsistent pulse of mid-period S’ly swell Saturday, generated by a broad and healthy but late forming (in Indonesia’s swell window) polar frontal system.

The swell came in around 4-5ft+ in Margaret River and sets to 4ft are due across our magnets before easing into Sunday.

A slightly smaller and less consistent S/SW groundswell will follow the mid-period energy, arriving later Sunday and peaking Monday. This was generated by a strong but short-lived polar low, aimed more towards the east than north.

It’ll be down, down, down from there with no surf due until next weekend.

As touched on in Tuesday’s update, a couple of swells are due into next weekend and beyond, but the sources look generally weak. Back to back, weak polar fronts projecting up towards us through next week will generate moderate sized pulses of S/SW swell.

The first is due Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning to the consistent 4-5ft range, with a secondary slightly stronger pulse for early next week. We’ll confirm this next Tuesday.

Over in the Ments, a small, weak W/SW swell is due from a tropical cyclone forming east of Madagascar over the coming days. The swell should build Wednesday and peak Thursday to 3ft+ or so.

Looking further west across to the Maldives and there’s no real change to the outlook since Tuesday. NE windswell looks to be most dominant ahead of some better mid-period S’ly swell later next week and into the following weekend.

This will be generated by the dual polar fronts with surf to 3-4ft due with each pulse but we’ll confirm this next update.

Eastern Indonesia:

Weak, mid-period S swell for Thursday afternoon and Friday morning to 3ft+ from Bali, west.

Small-moderate sized, mid-period S/SW swell for Saturday to an inconsistent 4ft, easing Sunday.

Small, inconsistent long-period S/SW groundswell arriving late Sunday but more so Monday to 3-4ft on the magnets.

Smaller surf for the rest of the week.

Moderate sized, mid-period S/SW swell building Saturday, peaking Sunday to 4-5ft, with a secondary pulse early the following week.

Variable offshore winds with weak S/SW winds tomorrow afternoon, W/SW-SW into the afternoons from the weekend. Winds strengthening mid-late next week.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Weak, small mid-period S/SE swell Friday to 3ft across the south magnets.

Small, mid-period S swell for Saturday to 3ft+.

Small, inconsistent long-period S/SW groundswell arriving late Sunday but more so Monday to 3ft on the magnets.

Small, mid-period W/SW swell building Wednesday, peaking Thursday to 3ft+ across exposed coasts.

Moderate sized, mid-period S/SW swell building Saturday, peaking Sunday to 4-5ft, with a secondary pulse early the following week.

Variable winds, freshening from the S/SE Sunday afternoon, variable next week.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Weak NE windswell for the period to 3ft+.

Small background S/SE swells through early-mid next week to 2-3ft or so.

Moderate sized mid-period S’ly swell for later next week and weekend to 3-4ft on the southern atolls.

Persistent, strong E/NE-NE winds, easing later next week.