Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 8th February)

This week through next (Feb 9 - 16)

Fun levels of background S/SW-S swell are now on the way out with the surf due to bottom out into the weekend.

Most of next week looks minimal in size apart from small levels of background mid-period SW energy across the magnets.

There’s no major swell source linked to these but expect 3ft+ sets Monday through Wednesday.

Later in the week, another funky S’ly swell is due, generated by a fetch of strong S-S/SE winds off Western Australia early next week. EC has this fetch a little weaker than GFS so we’ll have to review it but a kick to 4ft is likely Thursday afternoon/Friday morning from Bali west, smaller to the east.

The Mentawais should get this swell as well on the south magnets, peaking Friday to 4ft or so.

Otherwise, some small-moderate sized, mid-period S/SW swell is due later Friday and Saturday morning, generated by a broad but weak fetch of strong winds firing up to the south-west of Western Australia.

Behind this a stronger but poorly aimed polar low isn’t expected to produced any size so make the most of the small swells next week.

Across the Maldives, and a small mid-period S’ly swell due today and tomorrow is worth making the most of as other swell sources look minimal.

NE windswell will be dominant thereafter thanks to strengthening E/NE monsoon winds off Sri Lanka from the weekend. The size should reach 3ft+ through next week but with nowhere to hide from the winds.

Eastern Indonesia:

Swell bottoming out into the weekend.

Small, inconsistent, background mid-period SW swell for early-mid next week to 3ft+ on the magnets.

Possible slightly bigger mid-period S swell for later Thursday and Friday morning to 4ft from Bali, west.

Small-moderate sized, mid-period S/SW swell for later Friday and Saturday morning to 4ft+.

Variable offshore winds with weak sea breezes tomorrow and Saturday. W/NW-NW winds, freshening from the W-W/SW into the afternoons from Sunday into next week.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Small, inconsistent background S/SW swell for early-mid next week to 3ft on the magnets.

Slightly better, but weak mid-period S/SE swell next Friday to 4ft across the magnets.

Small, mid-period S swell for next Saturday to 3-4ft.

Variable winds this period, tending S/SE next Wednesday/Thursday.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Background mid-period S’ly swell to 2-3ft Thursday/Friday, easing into the weekend.

Weak NE windswell for the coming days, building from the weekend, into next week to 3ft+.

Fresh NE winds tomorrow (N/NE to the south), strengthening from the E/NE into the weekend, persisting all next week from the E/NE-NE.