Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 30th November)

This week through next week (Dec 1 - 8)

From later today through Sunday morning, we've got small pluses of background swell energy, with the best pulse due later Saturday and Sunday morning.

These will keep the magnets surfable, but of greater significance is the SW groundswell due through next week.

We've got a slight upgrade in the expected size thanks to a slight upgrade in peak wind strengths within the swell generating fetch.

The source is a slow moving mid-latitude low that formed south-east of South Africa on Tuesday and is now pushing east while generating strong and at times, gale-force W/SW winds. This will result in the swell being better in period and slightly stronger in size on the sets, arriving Tuesday and building strongly into the afternoon ahead of a peak, then easing slowly Wednesday.

The easing trend will be slowed thanks to the slow moving nature of the low and a weaker, trailing fetch of SW winds. This and a secondary front on its tail should keep moderate sized levels of reinforcing S/SW swell kicking next Friday/Saturday.

The Maldives will also see this upgraded swell, arriving late Sunday but peaking through Monday, easing Tuesday. A slight upgrade in size is also due there with moderate-large sized sets on the south magnets.

Otherwise, trade-swell looks minimal, possibly kicking a little later next weekend and into the following week.

The secondary pulse of S'ly swell due from a tight low forming south of Madagascar is on track, producing a similar if not slightly smaller sized pulse of reinforcing S'ly swell Tuesday afternoon.

Following this plenty more S'ly swell is due later week and the following weekend thanks to persistent frontal activity south and south-east of South Africa.

Eastern Indonesia:

Small, inconsistent mid-period S/SW swell building late Thursday, peaking Friday to 3ft across exposed breaks, with a similar sized pulse for Saturday to 3-4ft.

Slightly better, inconsistent SW groundswell for Sunday to 4ft across exposed breaks, easing Monday.

Moderate-large SW groundswell building Tuesday, reaching 6ft+ later across exposed breaks, easing slowly from a similar size Wednesday. Reinforcing moderate sized mid-period S/SW swell Friday/Saturday to 4-5ft.

Light, variable winds most of the period, tending S/SE-SE through the afternoons on the weekend and either side of SE next week.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Small, inconsistent SW swell for Friday to 3ft, with a secondary pulse Saturday to an inconsistent 3ft+ sets across exposed breaks. Secondary pulse of swell later Saturday and Sunday morning to 3-4ft.

Moderate-large SW groundswell for Tuesday, reaching 5-6ft+ across exposed breaks, easing slowly Wednesday and further Thursday.

Smaller, reinforcing mid-period S'ly swell for Friday to 4ft.

Light, variable winds, tending S/SE-SE across southern locations this weekend. Winds freshening from the S/SE-SE a little through early next week across all locations, variable later week.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Background S'ly groundswell for Friday to 4ft across the southern atolls, easing on the weekend.

Mod-large sized S'ly groundswell for later Sunday, peaking Monday to 4-6ft across the southern atolls, easing Tuesday.

Reinforcing S'ly groundswell for Tuesday afternoon to 4-5ft across the southern atolls, easing into the rest of the week,

Moderate sized + pulses of S'ly groundswell due later next week and weekend.

Variable winds across northern and central locations tomorrow, W/SW-SW across southern locations.

Freshening SW winds across southern locations on the weekend, weaker W/SW-SW to the north. Strengthening winds from the W/SW-SW next week.