Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Dec 23rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Sizey S swell developing Mon PM, peaking Tues, easing quickly Xmas Day
• Sizey NE swells developing Thurs PM, peaking Fri AM, easing quickly as offshore winds develop Fri
• Not much to end 2024 and start 2025

Recap  

Fun waves over the weekend as E/SE swell produced 3ft waves through Sat and Sun under mostly offshore winds. Size has eased back today into the 2ft range with SW winds freshening as a front pushes into the Tasman and a low forms due E of the Island.

This week and next week (Dec23- Dec28)

A cold front currently pushing into the Tasman spawns a low pressure system, expected to rapidly deepen later today and o/night before becoming slow moving in the south-central Tasman due E of Tasmania.  Weak high pressure moves into the Tasman tomorrow, bringing moderating  winds and settled conditions for Xmas and Boxing Day.

In the short run, we’ll see a wintry type of pattern develop with strong SW winds tending S/SW-S  as a low moves east of Tasmania. A first pulse of directional S swell offers surf to 4-6ft at S facing beaches, smaller in more sheltered locations. There are some longer period swell trains expected in the a’noon which could add extra energy into more sheltered locations, which will be smaller through the day.

Light/variable winds on Xmas Day with swell having wound back from the peak and leftover S-S/SE swells to 2-3ft, easing through the day.

Surf then builds from the NE on Boxing Day as NE winds develop off the Coast and extending up off the NSW South Coast. Small surf to start should build to 3ft in the a’noon under mod/fresh N/NE winds.

That swell builds further o/night into Fri with size to 4-5ft early, easing quickly during the day. Early is the go with offshore winds as a low passes to the south of the state, driving a W’ly flow across Tasmania. By close of play, size will have dropped right off. 

Into the weekend and only tiny surf expected both days under a W’ly flow. 

Looks like a quiet end to 2024 with weak pressure gradients in the Tasman and Coral seas. We’ll pencil in light winds and tiny surf to 1-2ft or less to pad out the old year.

The Tasman sea continues to be soupy with above average SST’s and continuing troughy low pressure into the new Year. There is some model guidance from EC suggesting a broad surface low forming in the Tasman first week of the New Year which under the best case scenario could generate some sizey S-S/SE swell. No interest in this scenario from GFS so we’ll flag it as a low confidence call and see how things look when we come back Xmas Day.

Seeya then.