Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Aug 12th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small into next week, possibly small NE windswell Tues PM/Wed with NW-N winds
• Small E/NE swell possible Thurs/Fri with mostly NW winds
• Possible S/SE swell bump Sat PM
• Bigger S/SE-SE swell possible Sun
• Low confidence in specifics due to troughy pattern in Tasman Sea, so check back Wed for the latest

Recap

Small E’ly swells hung in there in the 1-2ft range yesterday under W/SW winds. Remarkably there is still some small, just rideable 1 occ. 2ft surf on offer today with offshore winds.

This week and next week (Aug 12-23)

You would not  think it was August after looking at the synoptic charts. We have a strong (1033hPa) high in the Tasman, with a deep E’ly flow through the Coral Sea feeding into a coastal trough along the QLD coast. That trough is drawing down plenty of tropical moisture in the deep onshore flow, and generating sizey, stormy E’ly swells for the sub-tropics. Winds off the Tasmanian coast and up into Bass Strait are tending more N’ly over the short term producing some small NE windswell.

 Further ahead and weather models have really been struggling to resolve the remnants of the troughy pattern in the Tasman over the weekend. It does look like some sort of re-strengthening will occur with a S-SE flow generating swells from that direction in the medium term, although plenty of revision is likely as we move through the week.

In the short run we’ll see NW winds tending N’ly tomorrow, extending into Wed before tending NW again. We should see a small rise in NE windswell through tomorrow, minor league but possibly rideable with Wed a better bet for the odd 2ft set. 

Small NE swells coming down from NSW should hold just rideable surf into Thurs under W tending NW then NE winds.

Fri may see a small increase again as NE winds feeding into a trough off the NSW south Coast offer a small bump in NE windswell. None of these small bumps in size are significant but Fri should see a few 2ft sets. 

Into the weekend and it’a a tricky outlook with poor model agreement so expect changes as we move through the week. We should see some sort of trough deepen as it moves off the NSW Coast towards New Zealand. Under current modelling we’d expect an increase in S/SE swell Sat under fresh onshore winds (see below) with a solid pulse of SE swell on Sun with a very tricky wind outlook as a trough sits near the Island. 

Source of possible S/SE swell Sat- we'll see how it looks on Wed

Easing surf into next week before high pressure moves into the Tasman. We may see some NE windswell off the back of the high later Mon into Tues but again, low confidence due to model divergence.

Check back Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.