Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri July 26th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small NE windswell wrap continues into the weekend with fresh NW winds
• Strong S swell spike Sun, continuing into Mon
• Strong low in the Tasman next week now looks to supply large surf for Tasmania with mostly S-SE winds
• Rebuilding Tues with a peak in size Wed
• Slowly easing but remaining solid into the end of next week

Recap

Small NE wind swells topped out in the 2ft range yesterday with N tending NW winds.A few leftover 2ft sets this morning are now easing with fresh NW winds continuing.

This weekend and next week (Jul26- Aug2)

Upgrade for the weekend f/cast but next week is looking much juicier as a complex low in the Tasman aims up more directly at Tasmania. 

In the short run we’ll see more small NE windswell wrap in the 1-2ft range tomorrow with NW winds, and a  SW change in the a’noon a s small low passes to the south of the state. 

On Sunday we’ll see a major low form to the East of the state with a much stronger and better positioned fetch of SW-S/SW gales next to the state. Winds will increase through the day and swell from the S will rise with it, from almost flat to 5-6ft at S exposed breaks in the a’noon.

 Gales to strong gales develop later Sun and o/night into Mon as a complex low forms  in the Tasman. Multiple swell generating fetches are expected to form and sling shot around this huge, slow moving low gyre. Thus we can expect an extend period of large surf next week with embedded pulses from the S through S/SE-SE as the week goes on.

For Mon we’ll expect size up in the 5-6ft range. Lot's of wind to go with it. Fresh S/SW-SW winds early, clocking around SW through S/SW during the day. Smaller, but still sizey surf at more protected locations.

Still very solid Tues, with initial S swell augmented by new S/SE-SE swell as a fetch develops on the more eastern side of the Tasman. - Similar winds, possibly just a notch lighter but confining clean conditions to more sheltered spots. Expect size to build from 4-5ft to 6ft+ during the day.

By Wed, the fetch that developed towards the South Island Mon into Tues and retrogrades in a similar manner to June’s solstice swell, will see a strong new rebuild in SE swell. Likely building back into the 8-10ft range if current modelling plays out. This second pulse is likely to be the peak of the swell and similar in magnitude to the June Solstice swell. Strong S’lies will continue.

Only a very slow easing expected for the second half of next week as the low slowly dissipates

Expect solid surf Thurs in the 6 occ. 8ft range with S-SE winds.

Slowly dropping through Fri and even remaining solid 4-5ft on Sat. 

High pressure looks to move into the Tasman next weekend, suggesting a much quieter week beginning 5/8.

Get the big boards prepped and seeya Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!