Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 11th August)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny surf Sat
• Stronger S swell Sun/Mon
• More S-S/SE swell pulses Tues and Wed with improving winds
• Potential bigger S swell next weekend, low confidence check back Mon
• Recap
• Small amounts of NE windswell to 1-1.5ft yesterday with N’ly winds before a SW change. Today is tiny/flat with light/mod NW winds. 

This weekend and next week (Aug11 - Aug 17)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Tiny surf Sat as a front crosses the state and brings fresh W’ly winds that should tend more SW in the a’noon and freshen further.

Those wind are associated with a low passing under the state and expected to stall in the Central/Eastern Tasman. The fetch generates a nice amount of S swell wrap for Sunday with size building to 2-3ft at S exposed breaks. S’ly winds will be a problem though. 

Size increases further on Mon as stronger, longer period S swell makes landfall with size to 3-5ft at S facing beaches. Lingering SW winds will tend S’ly as a high approaches the Island. 

There should be plenty of surf around Tues with improving winds as high moves over the Island and winds tend W’ly through the day. S/SE swell to 3ft, should slowly ease through the day.

A last pulse of SSE-SE swell Wed from the stalled low sees surf to 3-4ft, easing during the day with offshore winds. Definitely one to pencil in. 

Further ahead we may see some small NE windswell develop Thurs as the high moves into the Tasman, but it looks to be small and short-lived if at all due to a series of approaching fronts which drive a strong W’ly flow across the Island late next week. 

An approaching front looks links up with an inland trough generating strong W’ly winds Fri.  The system may form a deep low with gales in the Tasman next weekend. There’s still a lot of model divergence to get through so we’ll see revisions on Mon but under current modelling there is broad agreement on a major system in the lower Tasman, possibly tracking NE next weekend. This would suggest a sizey S swell event late next weekend.

We’ll keep fingers crossed and see how it looks when we come back Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!