Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 19th April)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• E/NE swell , easing Thurs with offshore winds
• Easing but fun E-E/NE swells hold from Fri into the weekend with offshore winds
• Pulses of NE windswell next week, beginning Mon
• Potentially sizey NE swell Thurs with offshore winds - check back Fri for updates

Recap

Plenty of E/NE swell since Mon with yesterday seeing surf in the 3-4ft range and light NW winds. Similar size surf is on offer today with a more W’ly flow. 

This week and next week (Apr 19 - 28)

We still have the trough block pattern in place with the South Pacific low centre contracting away to the NE while a secondary low centre retrogrades back into he Tasman Sea. An anchoring high, is being shunted away with a trough and front expected tomorrow before a new dominant high moves in from the Bight.

In the short run we’ll see easing size tomorrow with 3ft sets, dropping back through the day and a lovely offshore wind all day as a high moves north and a series of fronts pass below the Island.

As mentioned in Mondays notes the trough block buds a small retrograding low which tracks SW back into the Tasman Wed/Thurs. We’ll see an E-E/NE infeed fetch into this system and a return SSE fetch on the bottom flank of the low. 

This will generate a small rebuild in size Fri with sets to 2-3ft, easing through the day and continuing offshore W’ly winds, tending variable in the a’noon.

Into the weekend and small levels of residual E/NE swell keep surfable wave happening with Sat seeing surf in the 1-2ft range and similar size on Sun. Winds look good Sat with a continuing W-W/NW flow while Sun sees a wind change with high pressure drifting over the Island and a weak onshore flow developing during the day. Winds should stay light all day though.

Next week will see a few pulses of NE swell develop as a strong high move into the Central Tasman and a N’ly fetch develops off the South Coast down to Bass Strait.

Under current modelling we’ll see an initial build in NE windswell Mon PM, into the 2ft range, persisting into Tues.

Well positioned fetch for NE windswell next week

Surf should build further later Wed into Thurs, possibly exceeding 4ft, with an offshore change either Thurs or Fri as a strong front sweeps across the state.

We’ll fine-tune surf heights and winds on Fri.

Check back then for the latest.