Nice pulses of E/NE swell continue this week with an offshore flow
Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 17th April)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Building E/NE swell Sun with a fresh SSW change
- Great run of solid E/NE swell Mon-Wed, easing Thurs with offshore winds
- Easing but fun E-E/NE swells hold from Fri into the weekend with offshore winds
Recap
Not much on offer Sat with 2ft surf and light winds. Sunday saw increasing E swells to 4ft and size has held in that range today with NW winds now tending W’ly across most of NETas.
This week and next week (Apr 17 - 28)
The trough-block pattern set-up nicely over the weekend and we’re looking at a sustained run of swell from the Eastern quadrant. A long, angled trough with embedded low pressure centres on the Eastern flank is concentrating broad E-E/NE infeed fetches in the Eastern swell window. The pattern is expected to be slow moving with the main E-E/NE fetch slowly contracting north-eastwards this week while a small offshoot low looks to retrograde back into the Tasman Sea.
In the short run and NW winds are on offer tomorrow as a high sits above the state and a front approaches. E/NE swell comes off a peak day and winds back from 4ft to 3ft during the day.
Gales around the low off the North Island today send a new pulse Wed which rebuilds surf from the E/NE into the 4ft range and winds look great as the front sweep below the state bringing a W/NW-W flow which should groom open beaches wonderfully.
A slow easing trend kicks in Thurs as the trough block slowly contracts North-eastwards with inconsistent 3ft sets easing to 2-3ft during the day and continuing offshore winds providing groomed conditions.
Fronts below Tasmania and high pressure above it maintains a W-NW flow through the end of the week and into this weekend.
So offshore winds will maintain clean conditions with residual E/NE swell holding a few 2ft sets through Fri and into Sat, with Sun easing further into the 1-2ft range.
Into next week and we should see small residual E/NE swell maintain rideable waves through Mon and into Tues with zonal fronts below Tasmania holding a W’ly flow.
That pattern will break down early next week and models are divergent with suggestions a large high moving into the Tasman could see a developing N’ly fetch off the South Coast next week.
Check back Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.