Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 17th April)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building E/NE swell Sun with a fresh SSW change
• Great run of solid E/NE swell Mon-Wed, easing Thurs with offshore winds
• Easing but fun E-E/NE swells hold from Fri into the weekend with offshore winds

Recap

Not much on offer Sat with 2ft surf and light winds. Sunday saw increasing E swells to 4ft and size has held in that range today with NW winds now tending W’ly across most of NETas. 

Plenty of size with better winds just around the corner

This week and next week (Apr 17 - 28)

The trough-block pattern set-up nicely over the weekend and we’re looking at a sustained run of swell from the Eastern quadrant. A long, angled trough with embedded low pressure centres on the Eastern flank is concentrating broad E-E/NE infeed fetches in the Eastern swell window. The pattern is expected to be slow moving with the main E-E/NE fetch slowly contracting north-eastwards this week while a small offshoot low looks to retrograde back into the Tasman Sea.

Trough-block pattern supplies days of good quality E/NE swell

In the short run and NW winds are on offer tomorrow as a high sits above the state and a front approaches. E/NE swell comes off a peak day and winds back from 4ft to 3ft during the day.

Gales around the low off the North Island today send a new pulse Wed which rebuilds surf from the E/NE into the 4ft range and winds look great as the front sweep below the state bringing a W/NW-W flow which should groom open beaches wonderfully.

A slow easing trend kicks in Thurs as the trough block slowly contracts North-eastwards with inconsistent 3ft sets easing to 2-3ft during the day and continuing offshore winds providing groomed conditions. 

Fronts below Tasmania and high pressure above it maintains a W-NW flow through the end of the week and into this weekend.

So offshore winds will maintain clean conditions with residual E/NE swell holding a few 2ft sets through Fri and into Sat, with Sun easing further into the 1-2ft range.

Into next week and we should see small residual E/NE swell maintain rideable waves through Mon and into Tues with zonal fronts below Tasmania holding a W’ly flow.

That pattern will break down early next week and models are divergent with suggestions a large high moving into the Tasman could see a developing N’ly fetch off the South Coast next week.

Check back Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.