Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Apr 8)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• NE windswell developing Sat, peaking Sun with winds improving Sun
• Longer period E/NE swell Mon-Wed next week S'ly winds Mon, lighter Tues/Wed
• Short range S swell Tues, stronger S swell Wed
• Low confidence next week due to unstable outlook and potential low, check back Mon for updates

Recap

More S to SSE swell has been on the menu since the last f/cast notes with 2-3ft surf at S facing beaches Thurs with light NE winds and more surf in the 3ft+ range today with light winds. A pretty goody to end the week.

This weekend and next week (Apr8- Apr 15)

A large 1031 hPa high straddling Tasmania ( no longer a peanut high) is extending a deep E’ly flow through the South Pacific and Tasman Sea. TC Fili has weakened (now ExTC) and is drifting southwards to the SE now of New Caledonia, anchored by a long fetch of E’ly winds from the cradling high.

Light winds tend NE over the weekend and this sees NE windswell start to build through Sat, into the 2-3ft range through the a’noon. Surf will start off small, so time your run.

Further size is expected on Sunday as the high drifts E and NE winds strengthen off the Gippsland coast and down to Bass Strait. That will see surf build further o/night Sat into the 4ft range Sun morning , easing during the day. Winds will tend more NW through the day as a front approaches. That should be the best conditions over the f/cast period.

NE winds off Gippsland, ExTC generating E/NE swell and approaching low. Classic Autumn chart

Longer period surf from the E/NE, generated by the long-lived E’ly fetch in the South Pacific, makes landfall on Mon. Unfortunately winds will be mod/fresh from the S to SSE as a front sweeps up past the state. Sets in the 3ft range will be on offer if you can get out of the wind. Expect a bit of short period S swell in the mix as well.

Through Tues and into Wed an elongated area of high pressure and a trough lingers over the state, bringing variable winds to the state, likely tending W’ly on Tues and more S’ly on Wed, although this is subject to change as we get closer to the date. Expect E/NE swell in the 3ft range, easing during the day. S swell builds on Wed, into the 4ft range before easing. 

Into the end of next week and models are struggling to resolve a complex interior low moving through the SA/Vic/NSW region. A strengthening N’ly flow is likely through Thurs/Fri , with an increase in NE windswell.

A low may exit the coast and reform off the Gippsland Coast Friday bringing a strong S’ly flow and possible large swell Good Friday.

This is likely to be subject to serious revision so check back Mon for the latest and have a great weekend!