Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Apr 6)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Mix of S and SE swell Thurs with light winds
• Stronger SSE swell Fri with good winds
• NE windswell developing Sat, peaking Sun
• Longer period E/NE swell Mon-Wed next week with best winds Mon
• Potential ECL off NSW Coast Tues next week, check back Fri for updates

Recap

S swell yesterday produced mostly 1-2ft surf with some bigger 3ft waves at S exposed breaks and S’ly winds. Today size has dipped back into the 1-2ft range overall with continuing S’ly winds tending more SE through the day and easing as high pressure moves over the state.

This week and next week (Apr6- Apr 15)

A large peanut-shaped high lies diagonally across the Bight and extending down off the East Coast of Tasmania. Through tomorrow this dual-centred high will lie East and West of the Island before moving into the Tasman Sea and consolidating into one large high pressure system. In the tropics, TC Fili is now moving SE to S/SE, roughly parallel with Grand Terre- the largest island of New Caledonia. TC Fili is expected to become slow moving as it becomes cradled by the peanut high, with a persistent fetch of E’ly winds supplying an extended run of swell from that direction. A strong low which passed through the Tasman is also sending a quantum of longer period S swell which will see surf heights build from the S to SSE over the next 24-36 hrs. 

Expect size in the 2-3ft range tomorrow and with light NE winds there should be fun waves about.

Stronger S/SE swell generated by the low as it tracked towards the South Island make landfall Friday. This should see 3ft surf, easing a notch during the day, with continuing light NE winds as high pressure drifts just east of the state. 

Over the weekend we see NE winds increase off the South Coast, extending down to Gippsland and Bass Strait, generating NE windswell for the North-east coast. This should see NE windswell build from 1-2ft into the 2-3ft range Sat, increasing in size to the 3-4ft range on Sun. An approaching front sees N’ly winds take a more NW angle through Sun, which should easily be the best window of the weekend.

Into next week and TC Fili is expected to track into the slot and stall- roughly equidistant between New Caledonia, the North Island and the East Coast of Australia ( see below). At some stage it will lose intensity and become extra-tropical but even as an ex TC the overall cradling fetch of E’ly  winds is going to supply a day or so of quality E/NE swell to the East Coast.

Ex TC Fili drifting south and sending E/NE swell to Tasmania

Mon should see longer period E/NE swell in the 2-3ft range, potentially building further into the 3ft range through Tues.

Winds are an issue Tues: a trough and potential ECL forming may see winds swinging W to W/NW, which is great news. We also may see fresh  S’ly winds through the region, which is not so great news. Check back Fri and we’ll finesse the winds.

Into mid next week and, potentially, all hell breaks loose again. GFS model suggests an ECL forming off the NSW South Coast, with potential gales to storm force winds and another large S swell event (favouring NSW) through later Wed into Thurs. You’ll see that on the wave models.

EC has a much more sedate outlook. They suggest the trough system stays inland and increasing E to NE winds flow into it, through Wed-Fri. That will see another round of onshore winds and short range E swell through into Easter Friday.

Instability and the intrusion of cold polar air over the interior suggests the probability of ECL formation is high, so check back Friday and see how things are shaping up.