Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Apr 1)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Solid E'ly swell Sat, building further into Sun with fresh S'ly to SSE'ly winds
• Surf eases Mon, with winds tending SW
• Small leftovers Tues, with a new spike in S swell PM
• Mix of S and SE swell Wed
• NE windswell likely next weekend

Recap

Swell from the south was in the 3-4ft range yesterday with mod/fresh S’ly winds. Size is currently around 3ft from the S with fresh S’ly winds still blowing as a Tasman low drifts southwards from the NSW Coast.

This weekend and next week (Apr1- Apr 8)

A deep Tasman low is expected to reach peak strength through this a’noon, with a general southwards movement favouring ETas, as it places the fetch wrapping into the SE quadrant within the swell window.

Deep Tasman low, with winds on the Southern flank generating E swell for Tasmania

Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show gale to severe gale E/SE winds in a broad wind field extending through the lower Tasman out towards the South Island.

That fetch will see surf from the E/SE build through Sat into the 5-6ft range, although winds will remain fresh and gusty from the S to S/SE. If you can get out of the wind you’ll find some waves.

Surf builds further Sunday as the low continues to move South with size exceeding 6ft through the morning, easing a notch during the a’noon. More fresh S/SE winds are expected, requiring some shelter from the wind. 

Conditions should drastically improve Mon as the low drifts further south, to be located between the Gippsland Coast and the North-east coast during the day. That should see a W’ly outflow from the low, with surf cleaning up as it eases. Size in the 4-5ft range will ease further into the 3-4ft range during the day.

A front passes through Tues, with small leftovers in the 2-3ft range from the E, and a late kick in S swell expected, as winds tend S’ly all day.

High pressure just to the South of Tasmania on Wed sees a ridge develop with SE winds kicking in and a blend of S swell trains from the near fetch and a passing low producing surf in the 3-4ft range. Longer period swell trains in the a’noon probably offer up the best chance of a better quality wave but with fresh SSE winds it’ll require finding some shelter.

Into the end of next week and high pressure noses over the Island, bringing lighter winds, from the SE to E on Thurs more NE on Fri. A small blend of E’ly swells should hold 2-3ft of surf Thurs, before swells ease back Fri.

Longer term and NE windswell is likely to develop next weekend as the high drifts E of the Island and NE winds freshen through Bass Strait and down towards the East Tasmanian Coast.

Check back Mon for details and have a great weekend!