Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jan10)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Increase in E swell likely Wed with E winds, holding Thurs
• Large NE windswell likely Fri, holding Sat AM before easing
• Small NE leftovers Sun
• Steep increase in S swell possible Tues next week, stay tuned for details

Recap

Leftover E/NE swell and some new S swell saw surf in the 3-4ft range on Sat with light/mod S’ly winds on hand. Surf eased back into the 1-2ft range Sun and has continued to decline today with tiny 1ft waves lapping the shore.

This week and next week (Jan10-Jan21)

Weak pressure gradient surround Tasmania at present as a trough and weak high pressure ridge flank the state. That will see a couple of days of tiny surf continuing through Tues and Wed.

Thurs is expected to see a rise in the swell as winds feed into a small surface low or continuing trough line off the coast.

There’s still considerable model divergence on these two scenarios with the EC version seeing a small surface low off the coast and E swell building during Thurs into the 3-4ft range with E’ly winds. Surf then builds further into the 4-6ft range Fri with continuing straight E to E/SE winds. 

The GFS scenario sees NE winds developing in the swell window Thurs with surf building into the 3ft range. A much bigger NE swell builds Fri into the 5-6ft range. With fresh NE winds.

Swell then holds at solid levels, in the 6ft range Sat morning before easing through the day with N’ly winds easing.

Longer term and small levels of NE swell should pad out Sun, easing back to tiny levels Mon.

A surface low or trough Tues forming near Tasmania is likely to direct a strong proximate fetch adjacent to the East Coast, with a steep rising S swell likely to build during the day. 

Model divergence lends very low confidence to the f/cast into next week .

Check back Wed and we’ll add clarity as model runs converge.