Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jan3)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Solid NE groundswell Tues-Wed as tropical low drifts south into Tasman Sea with SE winds
• Much stronger E/NE swell building Thurs/peaking Fri with strong E/NE winds Thurs, tending NE Fri
• S swell pulse mixed with leftover NE swell Sat

Recap

There was plenty of fun surf on offer to ring in the New Year with Sat seeing fun sized NE windswell in the 3ft range with NW winds. Size held into Sun morning before easing and today we have small 1-2ft leftovers with S’ly winds. 

This week and next week (Jan3-Jan14)

The remnants of ex TC Seth drifted down into sub-tropical latitudes over the weekend and today, and although the system didn’t penetrate as far south as Fridays notes indicated we’re still expecting a nice pulse of E/NE groundswell to make landfall on the East Coast through Tuesday, in the 3-5ft range, easing back into the 3ft range on Wed.

Winds don’t look too great, being mod SE Tues and tending more E/SE Wed and freshening. If you can find a spot out of the wind there’ll be some longer period 12-13 second E/NE swell in the water.

A second, much stronger swell from the E/NE to NE quickly follows as a dominant high slips under the state and quickly has a pressure gradient squeeze from an inland trough and the remnants of ex TC Seth. This sees a powerful fetch of E’ly gales  develop off the Gippsland coast Thurs, extending up to the South Coast of NSW on Fri. See below.

Local winds will be strong and from the E/NE on Thurs as swell builds rapidly up into the 6ft+ range.

Friday is expected to be even bigger as the fetch extends in length, with size in the 8ft range, albeit marred by NE to N’ly winds. By Fri a’noon swell should be easing.

Into the weekend and leftover NE swell is expected to see plenty of leftovers in the 3-5ft range Sat, with a S’ly change and trough system pushing local S’ly swell up into the 4ft range with fresh S’ly winds expected.

Both swell sources ease right back on Sun.

Longer term and swell sources dry up after next weekend, suggesting a spell of small/tiny surf after next weekend.

Check back Wed for the latest update.