Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Dec 27)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S swell  Mon/Tues as fronts pass south of the state
• Small S swell Thurs with light winds
• Workable NE windswell Sat/Sun with N to NW winds
• S swell Tues/Wed next week

Recap

There were a few small waves over the Xmas weekend with Sat seeing some 2ft sets from the SE and light winds, with a slight easing into Sun. New S swell today has seen size push back into the 3ft range, building event further during the day, albeit wind affected with S/SW winds now tending S/SE through the day.

This week and next week (Dec 27-Jan7)

As we discussed on Fri, Boxing Day has brought a pattern change after a troughy, doldrums period before Christmas. A strong 1033hPa high is located well to the south of the Bight, with a ridge now surging up the East Coast. In the tropics the Monsoon trough is now active, with good odds of cylogenesis before the New Year. Troughs also lie across the North of the country, extending southwards along the eastern interior and in the Coral Sea down to the Northern Tasman. It’s a hot, moist mess at the moment with a highly fluid synoptic environment. 

In the short run with the passage of the front, size from the S will decline along the East Coast with a light offshore flow left over in the wake of the front and before the next high pressure ridge builds. That will see some clean leftover 2ft waves early, easing through the day. 

A few small/tiny days follow as weak pressure gradients become established as high pressure drifts across the State. The passage of a front well below the state with a poorly aligned fetch sees a slight uptick in S swell Thurs, but it’s marginal stuff with only 1-2ft surf expected through the day. Light NW to NNW winds provide favourable conditions. 

The New Years weekend has better potential as high pressure in the middle of the Tasman Sea generates a Northerly flow along the NSW South Coast. That is expected to see some workable levels of NE windswell develop. Size should build into the 2ft range through Sat with NW to N winds and hold that size through Sun with slightly more W in the winds. Surf from this source fades back to nothing Mon.

Longer term and while the surf outlook hinges on the outcome of tropical developments models are suggesting a front pushing in Tues, with a high pressure ridge building in behind it. That sees surf from the S building into the 2-3ft range Tues 4/1, with size holding Wed morning before easing. Winds tend S then S/SE Tues, before tending E’ly as the front passes and a ridge builds in behind it. 

Check back Wed for the next update.