Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Dec 24)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Rare SE groundswell later Fri, extending into Xmas Day with favourable winds
• S swell  Mon/Tues as fronts pass south of the state
• Small NE windswell Thurs, building New Years Eve, then pulsing again Sat/Sun

Recap

Not much surf to speak of since Wed, with a small S swell signal in the 1-2ft range yesterday, easing back further today into the 1ft range, with traces of NE windswell in the mix. Some long range SE groundswell is expected to make landfall through the later a’noon.

This week and next week (Dec 24 - 31)

S/SE groundswell Fri/Sat. A stalled low well south of New Zealand has aimed severe gales back towards Tasman Sea with a rare SE angled groundswell building later Fri into the 2-3ft range.

This swell should hold into Xmas Day, offering up potential for some good, albeit inconsistent surf with prevailing W’ly winds through the morning  before winds tend variable then mod SE as a trough moves E of Bass Strait. 

Surf should ease back from this source for Boxing Day with NE/SE winds expected before a front brings a more S/SW wind regime in the a’noon. 

The next cold front tied to a deep low is expected to pass Boxing Day, with a rising trend in S swell during the a’noon and winds tending SW to S during the day. Size from this source is still expected to build into the 2-3ft range during Sun a’noon, building further through Mon as the front pushes NE past the East Coast. That should see size go further up into the 4ft range, possibly bigger 3-5ft in the a’noon, although winds will see tricky conditions as they tend SE during the a’noon. 

NE windswell looks to build from Thurs, as a dominant high drifts towards New Zealand, allowing winds from the western flank to form a coast hugging fetch south from Jervis Bay. Initially this builds size into the 2ft range Thurs a’noon.

Windspeeds fresh Fri, seeing surf build into the 3ft range with N to NW winds.

A re-strengthening of the fetch over the New Years Weekend should see size redevelop into the 3ft range Sat, building further into the 3-4ft range Sun, with N’ly winds during that period.

Longer Term and the blocking pattern of high pressure near New Zealand may offer more potential for NE windswell pulses into the first week of Jan.

Check back Mon for a full update and have a great Xmas!