Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon December 20th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell pulse Wed
• Small NE windswell Fri
• Rare SE groundswell later Fri, extending into Xmas Day with favourable winds
• S swell likely Mon/Tues as fronts pass south of the state

Recap

Small NE windswell Sat saw some fun 2-3ft surf albeit affected by S’ly winds. Size dropped back into the 1-2ft range on Sun, with a slight rebuild into the 2ft range today, brushed clean by mod/fresh W’ly winds as a series of fronts push past Tasmania.

This week and next week (Dec 20 - 31)

Cold fronts with a prevailing W’ly flow are currently sweeping across the state, flattening out surf and blocking the main swell windows.

The last of these fronts passes through on Wed, with a slightly better angled SW fetch associated with it. 

This better angled fetch will see some small amounts of S swell being generated for S facing beaches on the North-East coast. Expect size to push up into the 2ft range during the day, with winds tending SW, before turning SE/SW in the wake of the frontal passage. 

An approaching trough briefly tightens the pressure gradient with weak high pressure in the Tasman, offering up a chance of a small NE windswell during Fri but keep expectations very low, it’s likely to be only marginal in size, unless models ramp up the fetch.

Of more interest is a longer period SE swell being generated from well below the South Island of New Zealand Tues/Wed this week (see below). Models show gales aimed back into the Tasman Sea during this period and while that swell source is rare, it usually produces good quality swells. Expect size to build later Fri (Xmas Eve) into the 2-3ft range with a generally favourable light W’ly wind flow.

Xmas Day should see some 3ft sets from this South Island source with a continuing offshore wind supplying excellent surface conditions.

Small leftover should see a few surfable waves on Boxing Day with favourable winds expected.

The next swell source will be from the S as more fronts pass by the state. Early indications are that later Sun sees a slight uptick in size from the S, with a chunkier S swell pulse Mon seeing size build into the 3ft range during the day. 

Longer term and there’s a chance of another round of NE windswell later next week, probably Thurs,although we’ll need some time to see how models shape up with the fetch expected to form across the mouth of Bass Strait. 

Check back Wed and we’ll see how the end of the year will pan out surf-wise.