Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Dec3)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

Small S pulse Sat PM, easing Sun

Chunky NE windswell on track for Mon/Tues next week

Small S swell on the radar for Fri next week depending on formation of low off NSW Coast, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Small levels of NE windswell through yesterday saw surf in the 2ft range across North-East Tas, but that signal has eased back into the 1ft range through today, with winds trending S/SE before clocking back around to the NE during the day. 

This weekend and next week (Dec4-Dec10)

A front associated with a dual centred low passing to the South of Tasmania later tonight and through Sat reinforces the general S’ly pattern and bringing a small pulse of S swell expected to peak Sat PM and hold Sun morning in the 2-3ft range before easing. A light period of SW to S winds Sun morning offers the best surface conditions over the weekend. 

High pressure drifts towards New Zealand early next week with a strengthening N’ly flow through the East Tas swell window. This is expected to see NE windswell build through Mon into the 4ft range with fresh N to NNE winds expected. Size is then expected to peak Tues morning in the 5-6ft range before easing during the day with a period of favourable winds as they clock around NW, then SW as a front clips the state.

The front brings small levels of S swell through Wed and Thurs although size will be marginal, likely in the 1-2ft range although with W’ly winds during Wed it may be worth scouting around to find a rideable wave. Winds are expected to tend more S during Thurs. 

Into the end of next week and models are suggesting the formation of a surface low off the NSW Central Coast. While the current position of the low is too far north to be a good swell producer for Tasmania, the tail of any fetch feeding into the low is likely to see some small S swell being generated during Fri/Sat next week. 

Small changes in timing, position of the low and strength and orientation of wind vectors in the fetch will have compounding effects on surf size and quality for North-East Tasmania, so with such a long lead time before the system develops we can only sketch out the rough outlines of the swell generating potential.

Check back Mon for a full update and have a great weekend!