Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Oct 8)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Mostly small/tiny surf for the weekend
• Small uptick in S swell Mon
• Solid NE swell builds Wed, holds into Thurs/Fri and tends more E
• Further reinforcing E/ESE swell likelty Sat, depending on position of low near Tasmania

Recap

No surf of any significance in NETas to end the working week with only tiny waves in the 1ft range on offer since Wed. 

This flat spell is expected to continue over the weekend as the swell windows remain dormant. 

This weekend and next week (Oct9-Oct 15)

With a tiny/flat weekend ahead we can turn to the next swell which is a small pulse of S swell Mon as cold front passes the state, bring a fetch of SW to S winds adjacent to the East Coast and a small increase in S swell likely to produce some 2ft sets through the dat at S exposed beaches. Light SW to S winds may hamper surface conditions.

A much more solid swell event then unfolds through the second half of next week , with a high pressure system drifting in the lower Tasman towards the South Island and a strong N’ly fetch developing off the back of the high, with pressure gradients being tightened by an approaching mid-latitude low in the Bight.

This sees NE windswell build through Wed, into the 4ft range, after an under-sized start. Light NE winds should freshen through the day.

Surf from this source builds further through Thurs, up into the 6ft range as the fetch lengthens and strengthens along the NSW coast. Expect winds to remain strong from the NE, possibly tending NW to WNW in the a’noon as low pressure approaches the state.

Friday maintains a strong signal from the NE to E, as the approaching low drifts across the state maintaining winds from the NW to WNW. Expect surf to ease from the 6ft range into the 4-5ft range during the day. 

Next weekend looks active as well, though there is model divergence about the location of the low which drifts E of Tasmania later Friday. GFS has the low due E of Tas with a strong fetch of E to ESE winds aimed directly at the East Coast. This would see plenty of strong SE/ESE swell for Sat. EC has a more modest surf with the low stalled to the W of Tasmania and a declining NE swell on offer.

Check back Mon and we’ll have a clearer picture on how this pattern will unfold for the East Coast.

Have a great weekend.