Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Oct 4)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

Fun surf from the ESE Tues, essing into Wed, with period of favourable winds

Mostly small/tiny surf for the rest of the week

Potential larger surf next week if low forms E of Tasmania, stay tuned for revisions.

Recap

Lots of surf over the weekend in NETAS as a low drifted E, then S and a NE infeed along the NSW coast produced NE swell. Size was in the 4ft range most of the weekend, easing back a notch today into the 3-4ft range. Light onshore winds have now tended more W’ly as fronts begin to push past Tasmania.

This week and weekend (Oct4-Oct 10)

This week is looking much more like a classic spring pattern. The ingredients are weak, mobile high pressure at sub-tropical latitudes and a series of troughs and weaker fronts tied a complex area of low pressure in the Southern Tasman near the South Island and west of Tasmania.

The low near the South Island has had a fetch of ESE winds towards Tasmania, not ideally aligned but radial spread from the source fetch should see surf in the 3ft range through Tues, easing back into the 2-3ft range on Wed. 

Rapid, troughy wind changes are expected with winds swinging from NW, going variable and then W/SW through tomorrow.

Wed should see SW winds, tend variable then NW to NE in the a’noon. 

Surf is then expected to retreat back to tiny levels as a series of zonal fronts pass over the state, bringing a mostly fresh W to NW flow.

Small levels of NE windswell are possible Sat as pre-frontal N’lies off the coast of Southern NSW extend down to Bass Strait, but at this stage we are only looking at a couple of feet of surf. Just rideable, with fresh WNW to NW winds expected.

Long range and the situation becomes intriguing next week. A front passing under the state is likely to see a small increase in S swell Mon.

Bigger surf is possible mid next week if a trough forms a surface low in the Southern Tasman with a fetch aimed at Tasmania.

Other models suggest a more classic NE infeed into a trough which would generate NE swell for NETAS from mid next week.

With the long lead time and current instability in the Tasman sea, revision is likely.

Check back Wed, for a full update.