Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Oct1)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Better quality ENE swell Sat easing into Sun with better winds
• SE/ESE swell Sun as Tasman low lingers S of Tasmania
• Strong ENE pulse Mon with good winds, easing into Tues
• Quick spike in S swell Thurs, easing into Fri

Recap

Building surf has been on the menu as a low approaches from the West and an E’ly and NE’ly infeed intensifies. Yesterday saw 2-3ft surf and that size has built into today with onshore 4-5ft surf on offer.

This weekend and next week (Oct1-Oct 8)

Not much change expected for the weekend. The pattern remains similar as outlined on Wed, with a large area of high pressure straddling New Zealand, extending down to a weak high south of Tasmania. An inland low and offshore trough are generating a mix of NE winds and more proximate E’ly winds both in the Eastern Tas swell window. Onshore winds have been associated with the approaching low. 

Plenty of surf from the NE/ENE is expected Sat, in the 4-5ft range, easing during the day. Onshore SE winds should moderate through the day as the low moves away from the East Coast, leaving just a light onshore flow in it’s wake. Expect plenty of leftover bump and lump. 

Sunday looks a better bet for cleaner conditions with a SW flow easing during the day and tending SW/NW during the a’noon. With the low situated just off the SE coast of Tasmania during Sun, with a proximate fetch of SE/ESE gales expect plenty of strong 4-5ft surf through Sun, a mix of longer range ENE swell and close range ESE/SE swell from the low.

Into next week and a W’ly flow is expected as a low pressure sets up below the state, and synoptic winds from the top of the massive low pressure gyre blow over Tasmania. Thats likely to see a final pulse from the ENE though Mon in the 4-6ft ramge with clean conditions on offer, dropping further through Tues and into Wed. 

The next swell comes Thurs with a rapid spike in S swell expected as a strong cold front pushes up into the Tasman, adjacent to the East Coast, spawning a low in the Tasman. Expect fresh W winds turning SW as the front hits and swell builds rapidly into the 5-6ft range at S facing beaches. 

Size drops rapidly into Fri with winds turning more W’ly in the wake of the front.

Longer term and looking into next weekend the zonal flow of W’ly winds below Tasmania is not expected to produce any meaningful surf for the North East Coast, with small levels of tiny surf expected both days

Small S swell may boost wave heights on Mon 11/10 but with so much lead time, serious revision is likely.

Check back Mon for a fresh look and have a great weekend.