Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Sep24)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong S swell Sat PM, holds into Sun AM before easing
• More S swell Mon next week
• E’ly windswell builds Tues next week, peaks Wed, tends to NE winds swell Thurs and eases into Fri
• More S swell next Sat, easing Sun, with onshore winds

Recap

Marginal surf on offer over the last two days in NETas with a small NE signal yesterday replaced by an equally small 1-2ft S swell today. Continuing W’ly flow through today has blown surf flat.

This weekend and next week (Sep25-Oct1)

Few small changes to Wednesday’s f/cast notes expected. 

A deep low just to the SW of Tasmania with a strong front attached is expected to transit into the Tasman sea through tomorrow with gales adjacent to Tasmania generating a steep increase in S swell through the a’noon. Expect sizer to build into the 3-5ft range through tomorrow with fresh W’ly winds turning SW during the a’noon.

This size holds into Sun morning with winds improving from the W then NW during the day as synoptic W’lies re-establish in the wake of the front. 

A high pressure cell to the south of Tasmania builds an intense ridge through Wednesday with strong, onshore winds adjacent to the coast developing a short period E’ly windswell in the 4ft range during Wed. 

This E’ly windswell tends to better quality NE windswell during Thursday as a fetch develops and strengthens off the NSW South Coast and adjacent to Bass Strait. Expect 3-4ft NEwindswell during Thursday with E’ly winds abating and tending more N’ly during the day.

Friday looks a better bet for improved surface conditions as winds tend more W’ly and leftover NE windswell eases from 3-4ft back to the 2-3ft range.

Into next weekend and a cut-off low is expected to migrate E of Tasmania on Sat with an adjacent fetch of S’ly winds will whip up a rapid spike in S swell though the day, accompanied by fresh S’ly winds. That should see surf quickly build into the 3-5ft range, although with wind and swell coming from the same direction it’ll be a challenge to find a quality wave.

Conditions improve marginally Sun, but with an easing swell trend in place. Light onshore winds Sun may tend N’ly through the a’noon. 

Longer term and more cut-off low activity is expected suggesting further quick spikes in E and NE swell as lows pass to the south and over Tasmania.

Stay tuned for a full update Mon and have a great weekend.