Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Sep15)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• NE windswell building Fri PM, peaking Sat AM, dropping rapidly Sun
• S swell building Tues, easing through Wed
• More S swell ahead for the end of next week, stay tuned for details

Recap

Small levels of SSE swell through yesterday with light NE winds have dropped right back into the 1-2ft range today. Conditions have been clean with a variable wind flow as a large high pressure cell parks itself over Tasmania.

This  week and weekend (Sep13-Sep 19)

A large, twin centred high is now straddling Tasmania, bringing a regime of settled conditions, which will be brought to an end later this week as N’lies freshen along the Western flank of the high, generating useful NE windswell. Following that Tasmania is about to be strafed by a strong series of fronts bringing strong to gale force W’ly wind episodes.

Backing up a notch, freshening N’ly winds adjacent to the NSW South Coast and extending through Bass Strait, see NE windswell start to build through Fri PM, up into the 2ft range by close of play.

This NE windswell then builds another notch into Sat, up into the 2-3ft range with N’ly winds tending NW’ly during the day as pre-frontal winds arrive.  

The fetch rapidly gets shunted eastwards by approaching fronts Sun, with a strong W’ly flow likely to iron out surf to tiny/flat. Tiny/flat surf extends into Mon with continuing strong WNW to W winds, possibly tending WSW through the a’noon as a stronger front pushes up into the Tasman. 

The fetch associated with a polar low passing well to the south of the Tasman Sea and Mondays cold front extends from 50S up into the Central Tasman, generating a strong pulse of S swell for the north-east coast during Tuesday. Size is expected to build from the 2-3ft range in the morning up into the 4-6ft range later in the day, with mod/fresh SW winds tending more W’ly in the wake of the front. 

This pulse then backs down through Wednesday with continuing W to NW winds.

Further ahead and more cold fronts strafe the state through the end of next week, maintaining the strong W’ly flow. The fetches from these fronts look very zonal and too close to Tasmania to supply surf for the nor-east coast until Fri next wee

Check back this Fri for a fresh and full analysis of the short and long term.