Very active period of swell from Sunday

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 11th July)

Best Days: Sunday protected spots, Monday, Tuesday northern corners

Recap

Great waves yesterday with a clean easing S'ly groundswell from 3ft, still hanging in at 2ft on the magnets this morning.

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This week and weekend onwards (Jul 12 - 20)

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The end of the week isn't too appealing, with a flukey and small possible pulse of S'ly swell tomorrow afternoon met with onshore winds, before fading Friday.

A slightly better pulse of S'ly groundswell is on the cards for Saturday, produced by a weakening but favourably tracking polar low along the polar shelf today and tomorrow.

This may provide inconsistent 2ft sets across south magnets on Saturday with a morning W'ly offshore, swinging SE into the afternoon.

A small hint of E/NE swell will also likely be seen from an infeed of E/NE-NE winds into a developing Tasman Low tomorrow and Friday. Any size only looks to be restricted to 1-2ft though with more significant developments on the cards.

As the low starts to deepen over the weekend we'll see a great fetch of strong to gale-force E'ly winds develop on its southern flank to our east, along with an infeed of E/NE winds closer to New Zealand on Sunday.

This E/NE fetch looks to persist through all of Sunday before the low drifts east-southeast aiming the fetch away from us from Monday.

We should see an initial increase in E/SE swell building Sunday, peaking Monday morning before easing temporarily ahead of a stronger E'ly groundswell pulse Tuesday.

Open beaches look to build to 4-5ft by dark Sunday and ease from a similar size Monday morning, with the groundswell coming in more around the 6ft range.

With the low sitting to our east and slowly drifting east-southeast winds are looking favourable and offshore from the SW tending S'th on Sunday, W/NW Monday and then veering more NW-N/NW on Tuesday.

Following this we may see a significant cold outbreak form into another low off our coast late week, bringing plenty more swell, but more on this Friday.

Comments

uncle-swap's picture
uncle-swap's picture
uncle-swap Friday, 13 Jul 2018 at 12:38pm

G'day, is this swell still on track? particularly Sunday?
Many thanks.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 13 Jul 2018 at 1:29pm

The outlook has changed a little, keep an eye out for the update this afternoon.