Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Wednesday 6th July)

Best Days: Saturday morning and possibly Sunday morning.

Recap: 

Tuesday saw a continuation of undersized surf, with southerly breezes having an impact on the small options that were on offer. 

Southeasterly swell has increased dramatically today as a result of strong, local southeasterly fetches projecting toward the coast steered by a Tasman Low. We woke to sets over 4ft this morning, more so in the 6ft range this afternoon and lacking quality under a gusty southerly breeze.

This week (Thursday 7th - Friday 8th):

Despite the local swell generating fetches drifting east and losing alignment to the coast, intense easterly fetches along the southern quadrants of the low should maintain plenty of energy to end the week.

Thursday should continue to see sets in the 5-6ft range throughout the day, easing slightly throughout Friday from the 4-6ft range following the final strongest pulse.

Wave quality will continue to be an issue, with southerly breezes tending south/southeasterly on Thursday, becoming light/moderate easterly on Friday.

This weekend (Saturday 9th - Sunday 10th):

As this low continues to traverse the Tasman towards New Zealand, fetches along it’s southern flank will continue to project towards Tasmania. A steady stream of swell is on the cards for the weekend, with ebbs and pulses between 3-5ft at open beaches, fading into Sunday afternoon.

One final pulse is expected just before nightfall on Sunday generated by a fetch anchored off Cook Strait. Open beaches have the potential see a distinct kick in size back to the 3-5ft range, although timing will be tight. In the coming forecast updates we will monitor whether this swell will fill in on time or not.

Conditions should improve in time for the weekend with Saturday starting off under a light/variable-westerly airflow, giving way to a seabreeze later. Sunday has the potential to see a similar set up, however other models suggest north/northeasterly breezes increasing by day break. We will have to monitor the situation and update you on Friday.

Next week (Monday 11th onward):

Continued energy off the back of the aforementioned Cook Strait is expected to maintain sets in the 3-4ft range on Monday morning, easing throughout the day as the fetch becomes shielded by New Zealand’s North Island.

By this stage, gusty north/northwesterly breezes are on the forecast, so at least conditions will be workable.