Building NE swell across the open beaches
Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Wednesday 16th December)
Best Days: Each morning and Sunday
Recap:
No decent swell to speak of over the past few days. We've been lucky to crack 1ft at most spots, with light onshore breezes each afternoon. The silver lining is that conditions have been clean under light/calm winds each morning. Fortunately, there is some surf on the horizon.
This week (Thursday 17th - Friday 18th):
A small mix of southeasterly and northeasterly windswell generated by local fetches steered by a Tasman ridge are expected to provide options in the 1-2ft range at most beaches on Thursday.
Conditions should start of clean under a light/variable airflow, soon increasing from the north and eventually northeast, where options will become limited to south facing beaches.
A north/northeasterly fetch then looks to set up off the NSW South Coast, extending over eastern parts of Bass Strait late on Thursday, providing small pulse of northeasterly swell for the open beaches on Friday.
We should see peaks in the 1-2ft range throughout the day, clean early under light variable winds, before tending south/southeasterly and increasing. Protected southern corners will be a great place to finish off the working week, with peaky options shielded from a gusty south/southeasterly breeze.
This weekend (Saturday 19th - Sunday 20th):
Saturday will see the size ease back a touch across the open beaches as the north/northeasterly fetch eases and pushes offshore the day before. Background southeasterly swell should keep an element of energy in the water, with 1-2ft options at most spots.
The morning session is looking clean, deteriorating slightly into the afternoon as northeasterly seabreezes kick in.
A second, more noteworthy north/northeastelry fetch looks to develop late on Saturday off southeastern NSW and eastern Bass Strait, leading to an increase in northeasterly swell for the open beaches the following day.
Sunday is looking life a great day, with a northeasterly swell peaking in the 2ft range, with the odd bigger set mixed in. Northwesterly breezes look to dominate along the coast, grooming the surface and holding throughout the day.
This is a slight downgrade in size since the previous forecast, largely down to the fact that the fetch develops later on Saturday and begins to move offshore and lose alignment slightly earlier on Sunday.
Still, the outlook is looking good.
Next week (Monday 21st onward):
Monday is expected to see the size fade from the 1-2ft range as swell windows lay dormant between systems, however conditions should still remain easily workable under light/variable winds, tending light easterly in the afternoon.
Although winds will only gradually shift southerly into Tuesday, the impacts of a strong front should be felt, with a southerly groundswell building to the 3-5ft range across the exposed swell magnets by the afternoon.
More detail regarding winds on Friday.