Eastern Tasmania Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 13th May)

Best Days: Thursday, Friday, Saturday

Recap

Tiny waves yesterday, while the first and smallest of the S'ly groundswell pulses due across the coast over the coming days filled in today. Conditions improved across south facing locations with a SW tending W'ly breeze.

This week and weekend (May 14 - 17)

Today's S'ly groundswell was generated by a short burst of severe-gale S/SW winds through our swell window last night and this tended back more to the west this afternoon, and a drop in S'ly swell should have been seen across the coast.

A much better aligned and more vigorous polar frontal system is pushing up and past is this afternoon and evening, producing a fetch of severe-gale SW tending S/SW winds through our southern swell window.

This should generate a large and powerful S'ly groundswell for tomorrow morning, coming in at 6-8ft across south swell magnets, with much smaller waves at open beaches to 3-4ft or so.

Conditions will be best in semi-protected beaches with a fresh W/SW tending S/SW wind (more variable the further north you head).

The S'ly groundswell should ease through the afternoon, but come Friday we should see the secondary S/SE groundswell pulse filling in.
This has been downgraded a touch with the projection of severe-gale to storm-force S'ly gales north up towards and through the Tasman Sea now occurring a touch further east and with a touch less strength.

Still we should see south facing beaches come in at 4-6ft through Friday morning with 3-4ft+ waves at open beaches before easing into the afternoon and from 3-4ft Saturday morning.

Conditions will be a little dicey for south facing locations again Friday with similar winds to Thursday, but Saturday looks great with persistent W/NW breezes.

Longer term there's a couple of smaller and inconsistent S'ly groundswell pulses from a series of strong polar lows pushing under the country but no major size is due off these. We'll have a closer look at this on Friday.