Eastern Tasmania Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 1st October)

Best Days: Friday, Saturday

Recap

No decent swell with tiny waves and less than ideal winds.

This week and weekend (Oct 2 - 5)

Tomorrow will remain clean and tiny with a possible late increase in new S'ly swell, but this will be with unfavourable S'ly winds.

Into Friday though a large and powerful long-period S'ly groundswell is expected across the state.

This will be related to a deep polar low that's currently forming to our south-west of the state, being steered and strengthened up towards the Tasman Sea under the influence of the Long Wave Trough.

A fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW tending SW winds will be aimed through our southern swell window, producing a large S'ly groundswell for Friday, peaking through the middle of the day.

South swell magnets should offer easy 6ft sets with larger bombs in the mix at the peak of the swell, while open beaches are expected to be in the 3-4ft range.

Winds look great the further north up the coast you go with light offshore morning winds and onshore breezes into the afternoon. Further south, SW to SE winds are expected.

The swell will still be solid on Saturday morning but on a steady decline, dropping from 3-5ft at south facing beaches and 2-3ft at open beaches under fresh NW winds.

Sunday will likely still offer the odd 1-2ft wave early at south swell magnets with fresh W/NW winds ahead of a S'ly change.

Next Monday onwards (Oct 6 onwards)

There's nothing major on the cards next week until a small pulse of refracted S'ly swell pushes in Thursday and Friday. Winds look best Friday but we'll review this in the next update.