Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (updated on Wed 6th Mar)

This week and next week (Mar6-Mar15)

Central QLD: Plenty of waves on tap for this week and next

Fun waves have now developed with days more surf to come.

Start of a long run of waves

The winter-calibre low is now on the other side of New Zealand with a strong high pressure belt expected to become dominant through the medium term. We currently have a weaker cell in the Tasman, with a much stronger cell entering the Bight. This dominant high pressure belt will set up a long, broad tradewind fetch through the Coral Sea, extending at times into the Northern Tasman and South Pacific.

Frontal activity to the south is shunted away from the Tasman by the downstream blocking high pattern so we’re looking at E’ly quadrant swells for days in CQ. Expect 2-3ft surf for the next couple of days.

Not much change to the weekend f/cast. Classic late Summer pattern sets up this weekeend with high pressure straddling New Zealand, a monsoon trough strung across Northern Australia extending into the South Pacific and a long, broad tradewind fetch between the two broadscale atmospheric features. The fetch is so broad and long and super-charged by low pressure embedded along the Northern Flank that we’ll see quite an energetic E’ly swell build over the weekend and extend into most of next week. 

Model divergence then suggests lower confidence from mid next week as far as size goes.

GFS suggests a retrograding low pressure centre from SE of New Caledonia into the wide open E swell window early next week with a stronger pulse possible later next week (Thurs/Fri).

The European model maintains a more bog standard tradewind fetch suggesting more of the same (3ft) into the end of next week.

Both models are progging the tradewind fetch to break down later next week. We may see a small low pressure system form in the Tasman during this period, the tropics are still looking active so it’s highly likely we’ll see continuing swell from the E or at least potential swell generating systems from that quadrant. S swells could also be on the menu as the downstream blocking high pattern breaks down.

A good start to Autumn.

Check back Fri for the latest.