Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (issued on Wed 23rd Feb)

This week and next week (Feb23-Mar4)

Central QLD: Lighter Tradewinds now expected with small surf until Sat, more waves next week.

High  pressure has strengthened  (1019 to 1030 hPa since Monday!)as it’s moved into the Tasman Sea and a series of troughs are turning the moist and deep E’ly infeed into plenty of showers and rain. This is the pattern for almost the entire Eastern Seaboard.

An area of troughy low pressure is disrupting the trade flow onto the CQ coast, with the majority of the winds aimed at SEQLD.

This will see tiny surf continue into Thurs, with an increase in E/NE swell favouring open breaks on the Burnett coast pushing wave heights up into the 2ft range on Fri into Sat.

This size eases back into Sun and Mon. 

Trade flows and a deepening depression on Mon are likely to see surf pop back up again Tues into the 2ft range.

From mid-next week model divergence makes confidence in any specific calls extremely low. We’ll sketch out the pattern and fill in the details as they become better illuminated. 

Strong high pressure belt remains in place, offering excellent anchoring/cradling for multiple low pressure systems in the Coral Sea and South Pacific. 

On it’s own terms, the high pressure belt is expected to form a long, broad tradewind fetch through the South Pacific corridor between New Caledonia and the North Island, extending back into the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman Sea. That will maintain plenty of ESE swell at least through to next weekend at open breaks.

As well as a broad area of low pressure off the QLD coast this weekend, it’s possible we may see one or even two tropical cyclones in the Coral Sea and off New Caledonia next week. EC favours a cyclone off New Caledonia, moving slowly to a position off the North Island later next week with excellent potential for a sizeable blast of E’ly groundswell into the first weekend of March.

GFS is suggesting dual cyclones in the Coral Sea with a potential Fujiwhara effect, with a more NW movement back into the Coral Sea before tracking S. This set-up favours QLD, but as mentioned the extraordinary tradewind belt maintain excellent E swell potential to start Autumn off with a bang.

Check back Fri for a fresh look and a final squizz at the weekend.