Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (issued on Mon 21st Feb)

This week and next week (Feb21-Mar4)

Central QLD: More Tradewinds in the Coral Sea see rideable surf develop for the CQ coast later this week and into next.

Tiny surf today and into tomorrow should start to build through Wed as another extended tradewind pattern becomes established in the Coral Sea.

Trade flows across the South Coral and Northern Tasman Sea won’t be particularly strong this week but the broad scale coverage of winds and an uptick in wind strengths in more proximate areas of the fetch Tues/Wed will be enough to see a modest building trend into Wed and beyond.

This trade flow looks like being a sticky pattern- with multiple high pressure centres maintaining the sub-tropical high pressure belt and ensuring a steady state of tradewind swell through the week and into next week. 

At this stage winds look to set in from the SE to E/SE through Wed and hang in the 20 knot range, with surf building into the 1-2ft range through Wed. 

Surf should hold at this size through the weekend and into next week, at this stage, as the tradewind pattern gets reinforced.

Long term and the tropics are showing signs of a more active period through next week.

An active North-west monsoonal surge extending down from Indonesia into the Arafura and Timor seas and out into the Far Northern Coral Sea. Major models have been teasing us for a while now but odds are increasing that we will see tropical depressions form in both the Coral sea and near South Pacific near New Caledonia.

So, while we might have a few more small days to get through next week, likely at least through the middle of next week, odds are increasing for a more substantial E swell event later next week or early March. 

We’ll keep eyes on it and report back Wed.