Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (issued on Wed 9th Feb)

This week and next week (Feb9-Feb 18)

Central QLD: Another strong high pressure ridge sees rideable surf develop Friday and extend over the weekend.

Another strong high pressure ridge is preparing to build along the CQ coast Fri with (another!) tropical low drifting south from the South Pacific later this week and over the weekend down the Tasman Sea pipe. 

This tropical low has good potential to develop into a  cyclone, but the speed of the track and position won’t favour CQ for swell production. 

We’ll be relying on the supporting high pressure ridge for that and while it’s not ideally aligned it should be strong enough and with enough coverage to see some surf build into the 1ft range Fri. 

The ridge matures on Saturday, with the cyclone tracking south and a broad wind field of 20-30 knot SE winds whipping up surf in the 1-2ft range at most surf spots in the region. 

Winds ease in the swell window Sunday so expect an early surf in the 1-2ft range before an easing in size. 

Tradewinds look to rebuild in the Coral Sea early next week, with good odds we’ll see surf pick up again Mon, to modest rideable levels in the 1-1.5ft range. 

Models are picking up some longer period E/SE swell Tues,generated by the cyclone/low as it undergoes extra-tropical transition as it tracks  down the Tasman Sea. It’ worth being sceptical on this as the systems moving quickly on a track obliquely to the swell window. Nonetheless keep eyes out for a few bigger 2-3ft sets on Tues, with continuing SE/ESE winds.

Longer term and the Tradewinds slowly weaken through next week, suggesting a  slow tailing off in surf size  from the middle of next week.

Check back for a fresh update Friday.