Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (issued on Wed 26 Jan)

This week and next (Jan24– Feb4)

Central QLD:  Surf building a notch this weekend with better quality swell for the exposed breaks next week as tropical depression drops into the slot.

At the moment a reinforcing high pressure system is sliding into the Tasman Sea below Tasmania. It’s weak at present (1019 hPa) but expected to strengthen over the coming days and it will have the pressure gradient tightened on two fronts. First, from the west as a trough/low tied to the Southern and Indian Oceans moves through WA and SA and then from the East as a tropical low drifts into the slot from behind New Caledonia this weekend. That spells a bit of surf ahead.

Firstly, from the high pressure ridge as it strengthens and generates a broad windfield of 20knot+ SE winds through the Coral Sea, adjacent to the CQ coastline.

That should see some small surf push into the rideable range later Sat, picking up a notch Sun into the knee-waist high range at spots exposed to the SE winds. Surf should hold at that small level on Mon.

A stronger pulse is expected Tues. E swell will be on a slow build, initially from the cradling fetch of E’ly winds extending from the North Island into the South Pacific and back into the Tasman Sea. A classic looking summer fetch.

Pushing down onto that cradling high will be a tropical depression (possible cyclone). See below.

Tropical depression generates groundswell for exposed breaks Tues

This fetch will again be at the edge of the swell window as limited by Fraser Island and the Breaksea Spit and the Capricorn Channel.

Long period E/SE swell Tues should push up into the 2-3ft range at exposed breaks in the Burnett region, smaller elsewhere. Light winds are expected.

This swell then drops away Wed, with winds tending light N’ly.

Longer term and a high pressure surge should extend into CQ water by next weekend, suggesting another round of fun-sized SE windswell.

Check back Fri for the latest update.