Slower period, possible large swell mid-month
Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Thur 2nd Oct)
Best Days: Every day over the coming period at more exposed breaks
Friday and this weekend (Oct 3 - 5)
Pulsey S/SW swells have filled in the last couple of days with light winds each morning ahead of moderate to fresh E/SE trades.
We should see a slight dip in size through this afternoon and into tomorrow morning ahead of a new long-range S/SW groundswell during the day.
Exposed spots in Bali should increase back to the 5-6ft range through the day before easing into Saturday morning from 4-6ft.
Into Saturday evening a long-range and very inconsistent S/SW groundswell is due but again the size will be only limited to 6ft or so at exposed breaks, with smaller surf at more protected west facing locations. Weak E/SE trades are expected to persist, being variable in selected locations each morning.
Next week onwards (Oct 6 onwards)
Another medium-large SW groundswell is due on Monday across the region, but this will be more consistent than the recent swells, generated by a relatively weak polar front pushing north-east from the Heard Island region, towards us over the coming days.
Exposed spots in Bali should pulse to 6ft+ during the day Monday before easing steadily through Tuesday.
Beyond this there's nothing significant on the cards unfortunately with smaller background swells for later Wednesday/Thursday to 4-5ft across exposed breaks with weak S-SE winds.
Into the middle of the month though we're possibly looking at a solid S/SW groundswell event developing across the region as a vigorous polar frontal progression fires up south-east of South Africa and traverses polar latitudes towards WA from this weekend, through most of next week.
If everything goes to plan we could see a large S/SW groundswell for the week starting the 13th, but we'll review this Tuesday.
16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph