We’ll see some swell from this pattern, first from the initial short range S swell and then some better quality S/SE swell as the surface low retrogrades from near the South Island back into the Tasman.
Primary tabs
That sets up for a solid spike in NE windswell through Mon as high pressure moves NE and a trough approaches.
A deep low (962hPa) is currently well to the SW of Tasmania and tracking into the lower Tasman, although being shunted to the SE as it does so. We’ll see some S’ly groundswell from this source.
There is a deep low expected to scoot through the lower Tasman, weakening as it does so which may offer some flukey S swell at S swell magnets Thurs/Fri.
There’s really nothing of interest at all next week with surf remaining tiny right into next weekend.
Once the new high sets up shop in the Tasman we’ll see the N-NE flow which has been a constant for a month reset until a front brings a W’ly change on the weekend. No major swells ahead as the pattern of weak, mobile high pressure continues but there’ll be some windows of opportunity with small NE windswell and minor flushes of S swell.
No major swells this week, so we’ll be relying on small spikes of NE windswell.
We’ll see the wind flow strengthen on Sat as a large high slips in under Tasmania and multiple troughs and a cut-off low forming over the interior tighten the pressure gradient proximate to Eastern Tasmania.
We’ll see an increasing SE-E flow aimed at Tasmania as winds feed into the cut-off low, generating E’ly swells for NETas into the weekend.
E’ly winds feeding into the cut-off low are aimed directly at NETas and will produce sizier swells into Fri.