Troughiness next week does offer potential for low pressure development in the Tasman but we’ve got high model variability so confidence is very low in the outcomes.
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/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2024/11/12/troughy-pattern-throwing-some-dynamic
freeride76
Wednesday, 13 November 2024
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2024/11/10/more-swell-energy-week-tricky-troughy
freeride76
Monday, 11 November 2024
Another unstable, troughy week ahead with humid, unstable air over the continent creating a series of troughs, one of which forms a slow moving trough of low pressure off the Mid North Coast which interacts with a weak high pressure cell drifting in the Tasman. That will supply some workable E quadrant swell favouring temperate NSW.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2024/11/07/small-and-weak-weekend-longer-term
freeride76
Friday, 8 November 2024
No change to the weekend surf outlook which remains small and weak but winds will be all over the place as a trough of low pressure hovers about the NSW central/MNC coast.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2024/11/05/power-remains-low-and-over-the-weekend
freeride76
Wednesday, 6 November 2024
S groundswell is still on the radar as a slow moving polar low tied to Fridays front skirts the southern edge of the swell window, over the weekend.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2024/11/03/mediocre-outlook-week-little-more-the
freeride76
Monday, 4 November 2024
We’ll be relying on some small NE windswell episodes and great circle paths under the continent to deliver some flukey S groundswell short and medium term.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2024/11/01/mediocre-outlook-ne-windswell-sunmon-the
freeride76
Friday, 1 November 2024
High pressure slides into the Tasman off the Central NSW coast while the remnants of a front scoot across the Tasman. The front will have generated a small flush of S swell.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2024/10/30/grovel-days-ahead-low-energy-outlook
freeride76
Wednesday, 30 October 2024
We’re still looking at a fairly bland synoptic pattern with a weak, troughy environment in the Tasman, undergirded by zonal frontal activity well to the south. Some modest frontal activity pushes through late in the week with a developing N’ly flow on Sun set to provide some NE windswell.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2024/10/27/weak-troughy-pattern-in-the-tasman-week
freeride76
Monday, 28 October 2024
High pressure drifts into the Bight but weakens as the week progresses with a weak high cell budding off and moving NE into the Tasman. The result is a weak, troughy pattern in the Tasman and inland- unstable but not very surfy.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2024/10/24/energy-the-s-over-the-weekend-improving
freeride76
Friday, 25 October 2024
A complex but disjointed low has formed in the Tasman with diffuse centres off the North Coast and Tasmania/Gippsland coast. We’ll see various S swells generated by proximate and distal fetches from this system over the weekend and into next week.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2024/10/22/troughy-tasman-looks-deliver-more-low
freeride76
Wednesday, 23 October 2024
Lingering troughiness in the Tasman may see yet another low form next week- which would be the 4th successive surface low to form in October. Models are struggling to resolve this complex and unstable pattern so low confidence results.
